Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Anambra State: buildings, spend and payback

1,364,197 buildings in Anambra State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.45tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 47% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,364,197

Usable roof area

146 km²

32.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.45tn/yr

1.28 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Anambra

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.45tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.33tn

Lifetime cash saved₦68.9tn

NPV₦10.6tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy936 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.95 GWp

Capex₦3.91tn

Year-one energy value₦3.02tn

Lifetime energy value₦142tn

NPV₦23.5tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Anambra State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.95 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.91tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.02tn/yr
NPV: ₦23.5tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Anambra State pays back quickly

Of the 1,355,813 buildings in Anambra State with a modelled payback, 75.0% pay back inside five years and 42.8% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

75.0%

Payback under 3 years

42.8%

IRR above 20%

78.1%

Under 3 years · 43%3 – 5 years · 32%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 6%Over 10 years · 7%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Anambra State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Anambra State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Anambra State consume 2.25 TWh/yr but want 3.19 TWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 71%Suppressed · 29%

Energy wanted

3.19 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.25 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

936 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Anambra State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,355,813 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,364,197 in Anambra State. 1,181,665 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years580,641 (43%)

Under 5 years1,017,052 (75%)

Under 7 years1,180,373 (87%)

Under 10 years1,266,328 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,251,799 (92%)

Above 15%1,181,665 (87%)

Above 20%1,065,832 (78%)

Above 25%823,338 (60%)

Electricity billing bands in Anambra State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Anambra State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	342,315	136,441	₦270bn	₦262bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	308,649	159,119	₦343bn	₦298bn	29%	3.6 yr
C	297,069	141,201	₦297bn	₦276bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	209,917	105,682	₦252bn	₦239bn	45%	2.1 yr
D	206,247	102,434	₦289bn	₦259bn	27%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,301,738	602,250	₦1.09tn	₦983bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	31,401	21,661	₦171bn	₦170bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	12,295	8,018	₦3.57bn	₦3.57bn	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	8,782	5,991	₦145bn	₦139bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	5,052	3,778	₦28.3bn	₦28bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	3,706	2,584	₦6bn	₦5.76bn	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	555	233	₦4.11bn	₦4.01bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	432	285	₦661m	₦660m	43%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	148	48	₦606m	₦603m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	71	21	₦53.5m	₦53.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	17	8	₦16.5m	₦16.5m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	472,338	224,392	₦520bn	₦483bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	294,843	136,874	₦85.8bn	₦80.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	241,997	111,224	₦14.2bn	₦13.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	181,754	83,512	₦21bn	₦20bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	170,273	87,006	₦638bn	₦576bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	2,992	1,869	₦172bn	₦161bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	1,130,037	534,404	₦894bn	₦883bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	82,465	42,826	₦197bn	₦174bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	73,697	28,333	₦132bn	₦105bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	65,651	32,462	₦162bn	₦119bn	29%	3.4 yr
Rural	12,347	6,852	₦64.5bn	₦53.3bn	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	347,866	176,513	₦122bn	₦113bn	37%	2.6 yr
Residential	321,181	167,753	₦834bn	₦736bn	51%	2.1 yr
Residential Formal	229,730	91,853	₦70.5bn	₦69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	192,880	89,992	₦9.64bn	₦9.64bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	169,773	59,620	₦43.3bn	₦43.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	27,470	10,725	₦8.72bn	₦8.64bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	12,958	9,908	₦82.7bn	₦82.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	12,157	8,014	₦3.4bn	₦3.4bn	43%	2.4 yr
Duplex	10,594	4,613	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	9,398	6,874	₦121bn	₦118bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	7,177	4,331	₦40.7bn	₦40.3bn	43%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	4,005	3,056	₦23.3bn	₦23.1bn	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,356,395	640,700	₦1.41tn	₦1.29tn
Industrial	6,759	3,986	₦39.6bn	₦38.1bn
Retail	976	166	₦456m	₦456m
Farmyard	36	17	₦647m	₦647m
Farmland	31	8	₦89.7m	₦32.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,329,425	620,571	₦1.15tn	₦1.04tn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	21,198	14,697	₦126bn	₦125bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	13,574	9,609	₦172bn	₦166bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	584,957	298,966	₦1.04tn	₦935bn
4.0	349,793	138,002	₦242bn	₦238bn
2.0	194,992	94,875	₦63.6bn	₦59.3bn
0.0	192,417	90,014	₦9.98bn	₦9.98bn
1.0	29,702	14,612	₦5.82bn	₦5.02bn
5.0	9,206	6,172	₦38.8bn	₦38.7bn
6.0	3,130	2,236	₦49bn	₦48.3bn