Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Orumba South, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Orumba South has 45,914 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.09 GWp of roof capacity. 50% run a generator, and together they spend ₦40.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,914

Usable roof area

4.83 km²

1.09 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦40.7bn/yr

37.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orumba South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦40.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.06tn

NPV₦321bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy26.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity120 MWp

Capex₦124bn

Year-one energy value₦106bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.03tn

NPV₦843bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orumba South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 120 MWp
Capital cost: ₦124bn
Year 1 savings: ₦106bn/yr
NPV: ₦843bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orumba South pays back quickly

Of the 45,810 buildings in Orumba South with a modelled payback, 78.2% pay back inside five years and 47.3% inside three.

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How much of Orumba South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orumba South consume 54.4 GWh/yr but want 80.5 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orumba South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orumba South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,810 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,914 in Orumba South. 40,434 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,675 (47%)

Under 5 years35,803 (78%)

Under 7 years40,392 (88%)

Under 10 years42,758 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,308 (92%)

Above 15%40,434 (88%)

Above 20%37,217 (81%)

Above 25%26,604 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

70.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

235k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orumba South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orumba South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	17,508	9,229	₦16bn	₦15.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
D	12,683	6,091	₦10.4bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	11,394	6,905	₦13.6bn	₦13.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
B	4,329	803	₦766m	₦766m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,841	22,137	₦32.7bn	₦32.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	374	315	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	349	298	₦5.32bn	₦5.03bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	211	170	₦957m	₦955m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	108	94	₦188m	₦188m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	17	10	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	13	3	₦49.4m	₦49.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦118k	₦118k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,555	8,724	₦16.6bn	₦16.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	9,403	4,710	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,339	4,292	₦474m	₦472m	25%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,566	2,784	₦610m	₦595m	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,968	2,452	₦15.9bn	₦15.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	83	66	₦4.9bn	₦4.87bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	22,687	12,067	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	12,630	5,946	₦13.7bn	₦13.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,756	4,211	₦6.52bn	₦6.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,841	804	₦3.77bn	₦3.51bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	13,665	6,944	₦26.5bn	₦26bn	51%	2.1 yr
Residential Small	13,418	7,418	₦3.52bn	₦3.51bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	9,432	3,798	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,746	3,129	₦324m	₦324m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,313	721	₦377m	₦377m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	387	325	₦4.04bn	₦4.04bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	181	148	₦852m	₦851m	69%	1.6 yr
Duplex	168	73	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	105	89	₦449m	₦449m	79%	1.4 yr
Agricultural	99	54	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	59%	1.9 yr
School	90	79	₦245m	₦245m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	73	60	₦1.5bn	₦1.23bn	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,901	23,020	₦40.7bn	₦40bn
Farmyard	13	8	₦16.4m	₦16.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,327	22,544	₦34.4bn	₦34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	559	467	₦6.25bn	₦5.96bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	28	17	₦54.4m	₦54.4m	35%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	16,035	8,226	₦32.6bn	₦31.9bn
2.0	13,212	7,178	₦4.76bn	₦4.72bn
4.0	7,589	3,066	₦2.77bn	₦2.76bn
0.0	6,827	3,179	₦349m	₦349m
1.0	2,246	1,378	₦295m	₦295m
5.0	5	1	₦6.54m	₦6.54m