Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Orumba North, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Orumba North has 55,808 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.28 GWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦22.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

55,808

Usable roof area

5.68 km²

1.28 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦22.6bn/yr

20.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Orumba North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦22.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.2tn

NPV₦182bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy20.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity99.4 MWp

Capex₦102bn

Year-one energy value₦84.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.03tn

NPV₦673bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Orumba North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 99.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦102bn
Year 1 savings: ₦84.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦673bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Orumba North pays back quickly

Of the 55,331 buildings in Orumba North with a modelled payback, 61.1% pay back inside five years and 28.0% inside three.

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How much of Orumba North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Orumba North consume 34.9 GWh/yr but want 55.6 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Orumba North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Orumba North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 55,331 buildings with a modelled result out of 55,808 in Orumba North. 43,400 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,471 (28%)

Under 5 years33,790 (61%)

Under 7 years43,304 (78%)

Under 10 years48,912 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%47,896 (86%)

Above 15%43,400 (78%)

Above 20%36,199 (65%)

Above 25%20,640 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

42.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

206k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Orumba North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Orumba North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	18,400	5,260	₦6.72bn	₦6.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	17,103	4,548	₦4.38bn	₦4.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	10,738	2,932	₦5.63bn	₦5.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	9,428	3,218	₦5.83bn	₦5.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	139	33	₦39m	₦39m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,475	15,113	₦16.9bn	₦16.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	481	314	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	367	224	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	315	209	₦2.46bn	₦2.45bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	120	88	₦127m	₦127m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	21	20	₦9.29m	₦9.29m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	21	15	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	8	8	₦88.9m	₦88.9m	47%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,068	5,662	₦7.83bn	₦7.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	12,218	3,323	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	21%	5.1 yr
Under 30m2	9,871	2,751	₦282m	₦280m	9%	8.6 yr
30 50m2	7,565	2,217	₦389m	₦389m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,988	1,980	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	98	58	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	33,710	10,167	₦12.8bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,903	2,492	₦5.12bn	₦5.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,706	2,341	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	3,695	885	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	794	106	₦175m	₦175m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	19,257	5,770	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	18,035	5,657	₦14.5bn	₦14.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	10,645	2,926	₦271m	₦271m	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Informal	3,724	311	₦164m	₦164m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,245	343	₦115m	₦115m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	494	321	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn	49%	2.1 yr
Apartment	309	60	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Industrial Site	299	178	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	51%	2.1 yr
Agricultural	167	38	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	97	69	₦416m	₦416m	79%	1.4 yr
Duplex	93	8	₦3.38m	₦3.38m	25%	4.6 yr
School	83	61	₦308m	₦308m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	55,802	15,991	₦22.6bn	₦22.6bn
Farmyard	6	0	₦86.9k	₦86.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,078	15,515	₦18.7bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	681	433	₦3.63bn	₦3.63bn	53%	1.9 yr
SME High	49	43	₦318m	₦318m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,466	9,930	₦20.5bn	₦20.5bn
0.0	10,802	2,964	₦289m	₦289m
2.0	8,458	2,283	₦897m	₦874m
4.0	4,095	534	₦669m	₦669m
1.0	977	274	₦69.5m	₦69.5m
5.0	7	5	₦150m	₦150m
6.0	3	1	₦48.1m	₦48.1m