Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Onitsha North, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Onitsha North has 55,279 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.7 GWp of roof capacity. 44% run a generator, and together they spend ₦46bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

55,279

Usable roof area

7.53 km²

1.7 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦46bn/yr

33.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Onitsha North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦46bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.5tn

NPV₦346bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy51.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity193 MWp

Capex₦176bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.81tn

NPV₦756bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Onitsha North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 193 MWp
Capital cost: ₦176bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦756bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Onitsha North pays back quickly

Of the 54,887 buildings in Onitsha North with a modelled payback, 74.6% pay back inside five years and 28.6% inside three.

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How much of Onitsha North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Onitsha North consume 115 GWh/yr but want 166 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Onitsha North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Onitsha North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 54,887 buildings with a modelled result out of 55,279 in Onitsha North. 48,163 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,708 (29%)

Under 5 years40,954 (75%)

Under 7 years48,116 (88%)

Under 10 years51,987 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,528 (93%)

Above 15%48,163 (87%)

Above 20%43,142 (78%)

Above 25%37,262 (67%)

CO₂ avoided

93.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

51.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

111k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Onitsha North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Onitsha North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	50,586	20,947	₦33.2bn	₦32.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	4,634	3,319	₦12.6bn	₦12.1bn	45%	2.4 yr
C	52	9	₦130m	₦130m	27%	4.1 yr
E	7	0	₦9.95k	₦9.95k	3%	19.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,399	21,650	₦20.4bn	₦20.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,651	1,394	₦16.3bn	₦16bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,073	692	₦467m	₦467m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	692	319	₦7.71bn	₦7.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	256	107	₦295m	₦295m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	72	36	₦312m	₦311m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	57	34	₦379m	₦378m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	33	15	₦102m	₦102m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	32	21	₦32.7m	₦32.7m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	12	5	₦9.08m	₦9.08m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	2	₦3.53m	₦3.53m	35%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,794	6,845	₦9.25bn	₦9.21bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	12,452	5,594	₦24.9bn	₦24.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	10,470	4,486	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	9,628	4,219	₦491m	₦489m	17%	5.6 yr
30 50m2	6,693	3,013	₦628m	₦628m	23%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	242	118	₦8.82bn	₦8.5bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,604	23,371	₦41.6bn	₦41bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,670	904	₦4.4bn	₦4.07bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban	5	0	₦2.85m	₦2.85m	17%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	26,568	8,954	₦5.06bn	₦5.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	11,693	5,581	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	3,826	2,214	₦10bn	₦9.73bn	35%	3.1 yr
Shed	3,198	1,909	₦258m	₦258m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	3,161	1,994	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,523	754	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	35%	2.9 yr
Apartment	1,481	744	₦280m	₦280m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,064	689	₦437m	₦437m	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	468	252	₦107m	₦107m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	404	192	₦5.58bn	₦5.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial	359	292	₦1.85bn	₦1.84bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	274	129	₦1.59bn	₦1.53bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	55,274	24,272	₦46bn	₦45.1bn
Farmland	4	3	₦1.31m	₦1.31m
Industrial	1	0	₦516k	₦516k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	52,543	22,817	₦25bn	₦24.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	2,001	1,113	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	735	345	₦8.01bn	₦7.7bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	29,707	12,220	₦22.2bn	₦21.9bn
3.0	12,781	6,210	₦14.4bn	₦14bn
2.0	7,284	2,752	₦720m	₦718m
0.0	2,910	1,865	₦253m	₦253m
1.0	1,493	746	₦343m	₦343m
5.0	795	364	₦4.93bn	₦4.89bn
6.0	309	118	₦3.1bn	₦3.01bn