Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Aguata, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Aguata has 126,908 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.81 GWp of roof capacity. 45% run a generator, and together they spend ₦66.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

126,908

Usable roof area

12.5 km²

2.81 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦66.3bn/yr

63.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aguata

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦66.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦65.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.41tn

NPV₦532bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy54.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity232 MWp

Capex₦237bn

Year-one energy value₦199bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.46tn

NPV₦1.58tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Aguata's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 232 MWp
Capital cost: ₦237bn
Year 1 savings: ₦199bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.58tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aguata pays back quickly

Of the 126,535 buildings in Aguata with a modelled payback, 70.7% pay back inside five years and 42.4% inside three.

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How much of Aguata's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aguata consume 97 GWh/yr but want 152 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aguata

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aguata actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 126,535 buildings with a modelled result out of 126,908 in Aguata. 108,693 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years53,626 (42%)

Under 5 years89,484 (71%)

Under 7 years108,541 (86%)

Under 10 years118,200 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%116,312 (92%)

Above 15%108,693 (86%)

Above 20%95,156 (75%)

Above 25%68,601 (54%)

CO₂ avoided

119 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

34.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

54.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

414k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aguata.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Aguata

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	34,564	14,076	₦18.6bn	₦18.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	29,930	14,734	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	28,885	13,890	₦18bn	₦17.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	24,460	11,756	₦8.49bn	₦8.44bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	9,069	2,450	₦977m	₦976m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,538	54,089	₦46.9bn	₦46.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,601	1,340	₦8.51bn	₦8.45bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	643	528	₦8.88bn	₦8.52bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	470	410	₦160m	₦160m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	309	279	₦884m	₦742m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	277	223	₦883m	₦882m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	46	28	₦48.3m	₦48.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	21	8	₦46.3m	₦46.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	3	1	₦3.21m	₦3.21m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	44,135	19,590	₦23.4bn	₦23.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	31,743	13,913	₦4.54bn	₦4.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	19,803	8,767	₦826m	₦824m	17%	6.1 yr
30 50m2	18,418	8,197	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	12,650	6,328	₦29.1bn	₦28.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	159	111	₦7.17bn	₦6.77bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	118,751	53,816	₦59.3bn	₦58.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,111	2,536	₦4.1bn	₦4.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	2,046	554	₦2.9bn	₦2.88bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	43,784	19,460	₦6.08bn	₦6.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	35,560	16,164	₦35.6bn	₦35.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	20,982	9,113	₦870m	₦870m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	14,339	5,813	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,590	2,607	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,568	612	₦254m	₦254m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	679	622	₦4.48bn	₦4.42bn	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	667	547	₦7.04bn	₦6.68bn	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	597	267	₦104m	₦104m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	470	410	₦160m	₦160m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	301	236	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	230	182	₦776m	₦776m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	126,607	56,741	₦66.2bn	₦65.7bn
Retail	298	165	₦81.8m	₦81.8m
Farmland	3	0	₦228k	₦228k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	124,953	55,270	₦50.4bn	₦50.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,036	886	₦6.12bn	₦6.07bn	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	919	750	₦9.75bn	₦9.38bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	63,470	29,571	₦51.5bn	₦51bn
0.0	21,082	9,158	₦891m	₦891m
2.0	20,647	8,937	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn
4.0	19,597	8,153	₦9.42bn	₦9.36bn
1.0	1,892	957	₦188m	₦188m
5.0	182	106	₦1.03bn	₦1.02bn
6.0	38	24	₦669m	₦669m