Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Ogbaru, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Ogbaru has 46,907 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.38 GWp of roof capacity. 51% run a generator, and together they spend ₦330bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,907

Usable roof area

6.12 km²

1.38 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦330bn/yr

275 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogbaru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦330bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦240bn

Lifetime cash saved₦11.6tn

NPV₦1.87tn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy97.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity483 MWp

Capex₦481bn

Year-one energy value₦368bn

Lifetime energy value₦16.8tn

NPV₦2.79tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ogbaru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 483 MWp
Capital cost: ₦481bn
Year 1 savings: ₦368bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.79tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogbaru pays back quickly

Of the 46,772 buildings in Ogbaru with a modelled payback, 83.9% pay back inside five years and 42.2% inside three.

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How much of Ogbaru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogbaru consume 458 GWh/yr but want 556 GWh/yr. The 18% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogbaru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogbaru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,772 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,907 in Ogbaru. 42,311 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,761 (42%)

Under 5 years39,250 (84%)

Under 7 years42,288 (90%)

Under 10 years43,755 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,541 (93%)

Above 15%42,311 (90%)

Above 20%40,227 (86%)

Above 25%36,794 (78%)

CO₂ avoided

407 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

131 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

97.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

887k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogbaru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ogbaru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	25,080	10,786	₦57.9bn	₦52.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	6,176	3,552	₦75.9bn	₦53.2bn	71%	1.4 yr
B	5,520	4,468	₦112bn	₦70.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
C	5,363	2,872	₦54.1bn	₦36.7bn	53%	2.1 yr
E	4,768	2,420	₦29.5bn	₦26.8bn	61%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,660	22,843	₦292bn	₦204bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	894	526	₦11.6bn	₦11.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	595	358	₦22.7bn	₦22.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	406	178	₦206m	₦206m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	203	113	₦2.32bn	₦2.28bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	84	43	₦94.5m	₦94.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	27	17	₦42.7m	₦41.6m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	17	6	₦118m	₦118m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	14	9	₦293m	₦290m	47%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	5	4	₦6.57m	₦6.57m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦1.32m	₦1.32m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,876	7,300	₦113bn	₦83.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	9,525	4,667	₦2.1bn	₦1.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	9,343	4,544	₦19.2bn	₦15.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	7,758	4,169	₦147bn	₦97.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	7,011	3,186	₦3.87bn	₦3.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	394	232	₦45.1bn	₦39.8bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	23,736	10,390	₦49.8bn	₦49.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	7,415	5,102	₦92.4bn	₦70.3bn	73%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	7,042	2,450	₦52.4bn	₦31.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,513	3,949	₦104bn	₦63.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	3,201	2,207	₦31.6bn	₦26.1bn	49%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	18,104	6,729	₦6.93bn	₦6.93bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,601	5,446	₦32.2bn	₦25.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Shed	8,272	3,873	₦495m	₦495m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	7,452	5,382	₦234bn	₦154bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,657	1,087	₦15bn	₦13.6bn	51%	2.1 yr
Apartment	506	279	₦2.91bn	₦2.84bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	470	279	₦20.7bn	₦20.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	278	181	₦99.9m	₦99.9m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	254	173	₦2.39bn	₦2.33bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unknown	170	62	₦695m	₦693m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	140	6	₦138m	₦138m	33%	3.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	126	70	₦1.7bn	₦1.52bn	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,361	22,109	₦304bn	₦215bn
Industrial	2,893	1,988	₦25.7bn	₦25.3bn
Retail	652	0	₦373m	₦373m
Farmland	1	1	₦83.7m	₦26m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,609	23,381	₦300bn	₦212bn	27%	3.9 yr
Enterprise	757	449	₦24.9bn	₦24.4bn	43%	2.6 yr
SME High	541	268	₦4.47bn	₦4.32bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	17,111	7,048	₦51.5bn	₦49.3bn
3.0	15,742	10,292	₦261bn	₦177bn
0.0	7,158	3,280	₦440m	₦440m
2.0	4,622	2,393	₦11.5bn	₦9.27bn
1.0	2,052	944	₦1.15bn	₦859m
5.0	158	101	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn
6.0	64	40	₦2.5bn	₦2.35bn