Anambra State

Rooftop solar in Ayamelum, Anambra: what the roofs are worth

Ayamelum has 20,367 buildings with a viable rooftop and 445 MWp of roof capacity. 61% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

20,367

Usable roof area

1.98 km²

445 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70.3bn/yr

64.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.6 yr

Median IRR 69% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ayamelum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦64.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.23tn

NPV₦528bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Unlocked energy26.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity118 MWp

Capex₦122bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.46tn

NPV₦932bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ayamelum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 118 MWp
Capital cost: ₦122bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦932bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ayamelum pays back quickly

Of the 20,139 buildings in Ayamelum with a modelled payback, 80.1% pay back inside five years and 61.7% inside three.

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How much of Ayamelum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ayamelum consume 76.8 GWh/yr but want 104 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ayamelum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ayamelum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 20,139 buildings with a modelled result out of 20,367 in Ayamelum. 17,262 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,418 (62%)

Under 5 years16,126 (80%)

Under 7 years17,255 (86%)

Under 10 years18,480 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,266 (90%)

Above 15%17,262 (85%)

Above 20%16,500 (81%)

Above 25%14,910 (73%)

CO₂ avoided

107 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

38.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

236k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ayamelum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ayamelum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,495	5,802	₦34.1bn	₦31.4bn	61%	1.6 yr
D	7,854	4,653	₦25.7bn	₦23.7bn	71%	1.4 yr
C	3,018	1,973	₦10.5bn	₦9.8bn	71%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	19,610	11,723	₦64.3bn	₦59.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	307	290	₦2.27bn	₦2.22bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	223	209	₦2.98bn	₦2.86bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	90	76	₦199m	₦199m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	76	73	₦42m	₦42m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	59	57	₦468m	₦466m	75%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦45.6k	₦45.6k	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦419k	₦419k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,558	5,145	₦37.6bn	₦35.3bn	71%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	3,924	2,265	₦614m	₦610m	61%	1.6 yr
50 100m2	3,850	2,429	₦4.78bn	₦4.59bn	71%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	2,503	1,593	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	69%	1.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,509	980	₦24.4bn	₦21.7bn	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	23	16	₦1.78bn	₦1.68bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	10,472	6,649	₦25bn	₦24.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Urban	4,288	2,531	₦13.8bn	₦13.7bn	69%	1.6 yr
Rural	2,848	2,227	₦19.1bn	₦16.6bn	73%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	2,759	1,021	₦12.4bn	₦9.92bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	7,562	4,936	₦9.11bn	₦8.88bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential	6,423	4,062	₦53bn	₦48bn	73%	1.4 yr
Shed	2,826	1,655	₦214m	₦214m	67%	1.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,776	1,055	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	203	186	₦2.35bn	₦2.23bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	95	92	₦958m	₦919m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	80	75	₦648m	₦648m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	76	73	₦42m	₦42m	65%	1.6 yr
School	59	56	₦191m	₦191m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	57	55	₦447m	₦446m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	38	36	₦650m	₦638m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	35	32	₦165m	₦164m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	20,283	12,409	₦68.3bn	₦63.9bn
Industrial	54	19	₦2bn	₦972m
Retail	20	0	₦333k	₦333k
Farmland	10	0	₦2.43m	₦2.43m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	19,974	12,056	₦65.6bn	₦60.3bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	282	266	₦3.45bn	₦3.33bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	111	106	₦1.27bn	₦1.22bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	7,549	4,758	₦57.4bn	₦52.4bn
2.0	6,400	4,149	₦8.86bn	₦8.56bn
0.0	2,842	1,667	₦221m	₦221m
4.0	2,271	982	₦3.31bn	₦3.26bn
1.0	1,300	869	₦441m	₦383m
5.0	5	3	₦67.8m	₦67.8m