Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Yamaltu/Deba, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Yamaltu/Deba has 211,927 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.3 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

211,927

Usable roof area

5.92 km²

1.3 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.6bn/yr

11.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yamaltu/Deba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦824bn

NPV₦114bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦117bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.4tn

NPV₦924bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yamaltu/Deba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦117bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦924bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yamaltu/Deba pays back quickly

Of the 207,337 buildings in Yamaltu/Deba with a modelled payback, 26.3% pay back inside five years and 4.3% inside three.

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How much of Yamaltu/Deba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yamaltu/Deba consume 38.2 GWh/yr but want 58 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yamaltu/Deba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yamaltu/Deba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 207,337 buildings with a modelled result out of 211,927 in Yamaltu/Deba. 85,536 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,838 (4%)

Under 5 years54,542 (26%)

Under 7 years85,794 (41%)

Under 10 years108,517 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%102,246 (48%)

Above 15%85,536 (40%)

Above 20%62,520 (30%)

Above 25%43,081 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

31.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.39 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

550k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yamaltu/Deba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Yamaltu/Deba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	58,575	2,821	₦7.89bn	₦7.51bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	53,208	1,911	₦3.59bn	₦3.45bn	7%	14.6 yr
D	49,877	1,363	₦1.56bn	₦1.32bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	30,499	844	₦1.08bn	₦897m	5%	15.9 yr
A	19,768	1,489	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	207,520	6,067	₦10bn	₦9.33bn	9%	9.9 yr
Worship	1,436	1,119	₦212m	₦212m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,240	304	₦75.6m	₦75.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	956	400	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	657	484	₦3.93bn	₦3.67bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	92	47	₦109m	₦109m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	25	7	₦12m	₦12m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦95k	₦95k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	122,469	3,072	₦609m	₦609m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	45,044	1,665	₦1.01bn	₦942m	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	33,247	1,734	₦2.37bn	₦2.13bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	9,459	1,408	₦3.58bn	₦3.36bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,606	492	₦4.44bn	₦4.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	102	57	₦3.58bn	₦3.34bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	79,746	2,185	₦4.91bn	₦4.55bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	50,356	2,066	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban	35,046	1,537	₦4.91bn	₦4.39bn	17%	6.1 yr
Dense Urban	28,474	1,312	₦2.29bn	₦2.21bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban Centre	18,305	1,328	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	124,443	1,672	₦455m	₦455m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	36,594	2,389	₦2.79bn	₦2.47bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	19,527	1,671	₦6.08bn	₦5.71bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	13,891	1	₦92.9m	₦92.9m	13%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	12,977	331	₦598m	₦598m	21%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,240	304	₦75.6m	₦75.6m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	910	685	₦2.98bn	₦2.96bn	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	481	372	₦33.8m	₦33.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	475	372	₦54.7m	₦54.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	402	71	₦276m	₦276m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	259	202	₦307m	₦307m	81%	1.4 yr
School	192	140	₦109m	₦109m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	211,651	8,428	₦15.6bn	₦14.6bn
Retail	272	0	₦3.13m	₦3.13m
Farmyard	4	0	₦169k	₦169k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	210,653	7,798	₦11.1bn	₦10.4bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	731	524	₦4.03bn	₦3.77bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	543	106	₦436m	₦436m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	124,348	1,876	₦460m	₦460m
2.0	33,735	2,156	₦2.58bn	₦2.43bn
3.0	21,383	2,275	₦10.2bn	₦9.49bn
1.0	18,570	1,894	₦904m	₦863m
4.0	13,847	218	₦1.22bn	₦1.19bn
5.0	30	7	₦132m	₦132m
6.0	14	2	₦76.5m	₦76.5m