Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Nafada, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Nafada has 50,293 buildings with a viable rooftop and 257 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

50,293

Usable roof area

1.18 km²

257 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.1bn/yr

6.57 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nafada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.74bn

Lifetime cash saved₦353bn

NPV₦52.6bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy4.43 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity30.8 MWp

Capex₦33.1bn

Year-one energy value₦33.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.59tn

NPV₦274bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nafada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 30.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦33.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦33.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦274bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nafada pays back quickly

Of the 49,775 buildings in Nafada with a modelled payback, 26.4% pay back inside five years and 4.1% inside three.

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How much of Nafada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nafada consume 12.9 GWh/yr but want 17.3 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nafada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nafada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 49,775 buildings with a modelled result out of 50,293 in Nafada. 20,850 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,049 (4%)

Under 5 years13,126 (26%)

Under 7 years20,949 (42%)

Under 10 years26,158 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,988 (50%)

Above 15%20,850 (41%)

Above 20%14,867 (30%)

Above 25%10,901 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

11.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.06 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.43 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

126k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nafada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nafada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	14,428	411	₦723m	₦721m	7%	13.9 yr
D	12,503	344	₦439m	₦406m	7%	15.6 yr
B	10,561	457	₦2.62bn	₦2.46bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	8,058	236	₦315m	₦248m	5%	15.9 yr
A	4,743	529	₦2.99bn	₦2.9bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	48,907	940	₦4.42bn	₦4.31bn	9%	9.6 yr
Worship	777	592	₦135m	₦135m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	293	238	₦2.09bn	₦1.84bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	252	172	₦435m	₦435m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	55	32	₦19.7m	₦19.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	9	3	₦541k	₦541k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	31,461	778	₦353m	₦276m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	11,356	385	₦372m	₦372m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	6,089	439	₦893m	₦866m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,108	255	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	260	107	₦2.46bn	₦2.37bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	19	13	₦1.92bn	₦1.75bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	19,248	485	₦987m	₦887m	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	13,002	380	₦316m	₦314m	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,806	735	₦4.37bn	₦4.12bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	8,237	377	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	28,526	182	₦86.7m	₦86.7m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential	8,671	198	₦3.06bn	₦2.99bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Small	7,946	557	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	3,728	3	₦84.4m	₦84.4m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	477	358	₦565m	₦565m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	262	196	₦24.9m	₦24.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	251	194	₦15.3m	₦15.3m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	123	99	₦502m	₦502m	81%	1.4 yr
School	86	68	₦74.4m	₦74.4m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	51	29	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	39	34	₦679m	₦516m	57%	1.9 yr
Agricultural	36	0	₦87.4k	₦87.4k	5%	15.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	50,293	1,977	₦7.1bn	₦6.74bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,921	1,701	₦4.92bn	₦4.82bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	343	266	₦2.1bn	₦1.85bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	29	10	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	28,747	303	₦91.8m	₦91.8m
2.0	10,255	565	₦1.09bn	₦1.06bn
1.0	6,524	640	₦477m	₦400m
3.0	4,276	465	₦5.33bn	₦5.08bn
4.0	489	3	₦71.3m	₦71.3m
5.0	2	1	₦35.4m	₦35.4m