Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Shomgom, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Shomgom has 54,374 buildings with a viable rooftop and 305 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.18bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,374

Usable roof area

1.38 km²

305 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.18bn/yr

7.39 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shomgom

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.18bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.73bn

Lifetime cash saved₦412bn

NPV₦63.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity45.3 MWp

Capex₦48bn

Year-one energy value₦49.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.35tn

NPV₦404bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shomgom's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 45.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦48bn
Year 1 savings: ₦49.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦404bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shomgom pays back quickly

Of the 53,835 buildings in Shomgom with a modelled payback, 24.3% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

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How much of Shomgom's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shomgom consume 14.8 GWh/yr but want 23.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shomgom

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shomgom actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,835 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,374 in Shomgom. 17,063 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,481 (6%)

Under 5 years13,074 (24%)

Under 7 years17,104 (32%)

Under 10 years21,915 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,359 (37%)

Above 15%17,063 (31%)

Above 20%13,968 (26%)

Above 25%11,699 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

15.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

159k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shomgom.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shomgom

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,547	1,219	₦3.7bn	₦3.53bn	7%	15.1 yr
D	13,401	700	₦1.5bn	₦1.48bn	5%	16.1 yr
E	12,793	655	₦1.61bn	₦1.39bn	5%	15.9 yr
B	8,633	547	₦1.37bn	₦1.33bn	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	52,596	1,913	₦5.19bn	₦4.8bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial General	622	389	₦1.8bn	₦1.73bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	458	194	₦47.2m	₦47.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	426	386	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	241	213	₦107m	₦107m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	29	25	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	2	1	₦745k	₦745k	37%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,561	1,257	₦229m	₦229m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	8,166	450	₦231m	₦231m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	6,318	534	₦992m	₦891m	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,903	669	₦2.82bn	₦2.53bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	418	207	₦3.7bn	₦3.64bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	8	4	₦212m	₦212m	31%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	17,361	1,133	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	7%	14.1 yr
Unclassified	13,388	347	₦1.49bn	₦1.12bn	5%	18.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,120	867	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	10,472	574	₦974m	₦958m	7%	15.1 yr
Urban Centre	1,033	200	₦1.72bn	₦1.66bn	35%	3.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,634	884	₦133m	₦133m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	8,517	571	₦1.18bn	₦1.02bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,439	458	₦3.88bn	₦3.65bn	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	458	194	₦47.2m	₦47.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	328	294	₦496m	₦496m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	254	137	₦1.23bn	₦1.16bn	39%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	164	149	₦210m	₦210m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	117	30	₦168m	₦168m	37%	2.9 yr
School	114	103	₦107m	₦107m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	81	71	₦22.9m	₦22.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	76	68	₦8.47m	₦8.47m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	73	66	₦442m	₦442m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,374	3,121	₦8.18bn	₦7.73bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	53,545	2,541	₦5.75bn	₦5.36bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	453	409	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	376	171	₦1.4bn	₦1.33bn	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,699	934	₦137m	₦137m
2.0	6,710	797	₦1.76bn	₦1.67bn
1.0	5,122	655	₦441m	₦425m
3.0	4,556	658	₦4.61bn	₦4.32bn
5.0	201	46	₦1bn	₦940m
4.0	69	26	₦174m	₦174m
6.0	17	5	₦53.9m	₦53.9m