Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Balanga, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Balanga has 118,719 buildings with a viable rooftop and 629 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

118,719

Usable roof area

2.85 km²

629 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10bn/yr

8.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Balanga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.79bn

Lifetime cash saved₦551bn

NPV₦79.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy13.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.1 MWp

Capex₦98bn

Year-one energy value₦103bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.87tn

NPV₦841bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Balanga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦98bn
Year 1 savings: ₦103bn/yr
NPV: ₦841bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Balanga pays back quickly

Of the 117,781 buildings in Balanga with a modelled payback, 29.3% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Balanga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Balanga consume 21.9 GWh/yr but want 35.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Balanga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Balanga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 117,781 buildings with a modelled result out of 118,719 in Balanga. 41,622 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,290 (8%)

Under 5 years34,473 (29%)

Under 7 years41,678 (35%)

Under 10 years52,639 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%48,422 (41%)

Above 15%41,622 (35%)

Above 20%36,214 (31%)

Above 25%31,213 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

21.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.83 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

355k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Balanga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Balanga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	43,423	2,470	₦4.84bn	₦4.65bn	7%	14.1 yr
D	34,907	1,444	₦1.83bn	₦1.82bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	27,888	1,241	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	10,949	1,929	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	27%	3.9 yr
A	1,552	3	₦196m	₦196m	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	108,071	3,018	₦5.77bn	₦5.68bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6,967	1,923	₦321m	₦321m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	2,460	1,120	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	622	539	₦189m	₦189m	61%	1.9 yr
Anchor	546	454	₦1.93bn	₦1.81bn	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	50	30	₦29.2m	₦29.2m	53%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦1.91m	₦1.91m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	73,281	3,175	₦515m	₦510m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	24,519	1,391	₦818m	₦779m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	16,286	1,409	₦1.93bn	₦1.92bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,062	872	₦2.71bn	₦2.68bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	549	228	₦2.43bn	₦2.43bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	22	12	₦1.6bn	₦1.48bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	52,574	2,892	₦4.87bn	₦4.86bn	9%	13.4 yr
Unclassified	28,538	1,012	₦1.6bn	₦1.57bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	22,248	2,491	₦2.73bn	₦2.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
Rural	15,359	692	₦800m	₦768m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,176	1,208	₦244m	₦244m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	19,899	1,143	₦2.01bn	₦1.96bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,039	667	₦3.48bn	₦3.43bn	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	6,967	1,923	₦321m	₦321m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,951	0	₦42.5m	₦41.5m	17%	6.1 yr
Commercial	1,537	512	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	538	449	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	395	201	₦198m	₦198m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	247	210	₦291m	₦291m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	209	180	₦50.6m	₦50.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	200	174	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Market	191	144	₦23.3m	₦23.3m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	118,601	7,087	₦10bn	₦9.79bn
Retail	118	0	₦2.04m	₦2.04m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	116,210	5,894	₦6.8bn	₦6.72bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	1,936	717	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	573	476	₦1.94bn	₦1.82bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	75,397	1,355	₦251m	₦251m
2.0	18,107	1,532	₦2.05bn	₦2.02bn
1.0	10,748	2,622	₦729m	₦729m
3.0	10,518	1,473	₦6.21bn	₦6.04bn
4.0	3,245	84	₦391m	₦391m
5.0	675	20	₦315m	₦315m
6.0	29	1	₦53.1m	₦53.1m