Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Kaltungo, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Kaltungo has 78,199 buildings with a viable rooftop and 573 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

78,199

Usable roof area

2.59 km²

573 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.2bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaltungo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦738bn

NPV₦112bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy14.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76.2 MWp

Capex₦80.4bn

Year-one energy value₦81.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.86tn

NPV₦663bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaltungo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦81.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦663bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaltungo pays back quickly

Of the 77,034 buildings in Kaltungo with a modelled payback, 33.9% pay back inside five years and 10.4% inside three.

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How much of Kaltungo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaltungo consume 25.8 GWh/yr but want 40 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaltungo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaltungo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,034 buildings with a modelled result out of 78,199 in Kaltungo. 34,883 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,022 (10%)

Under 5 years26,090 (34%)

Under 7 years34,957 (45%)

Under 10 years43,189 (56%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,635 (52%)

Above 15%34,883 (45%)

Above 20%28,329 (36%)

Above 25%23,023 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

27.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.39 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

272k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaltungo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaltungo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	27,474	1,754	₦3.43bn	₦3.38bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	16,688	1,003	₦1.73bn	₦1.64bn	7%	14.9 yr
B	14,567	2,604	₦6.15bn	₦6.12bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	11,200	1,014	₦2.03bn	₦1.71bn	7%	14.6 yr
A	8,270	342	₦839m	₦839m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	74,547	5,310	₦10.7bn	₦10.4bn	9%	9.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,427	286	₦76.1m	₦76.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,221	346	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	505	352	₦2bn	₦1.86bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	459	396	₦242m	₦194m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	36	24	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	4	3	₦78.6m	₦76.2m	37%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	42,531	2,712	₦440m	₦437m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	15,567	1,132	₦566m	₦563m	13%	7.9 yr
50 100m2	12,857	1,286	₦1.84bn	₦1.81bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,399	1,245	₦4.91bn	₦4.81bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	810	320	₦4.5bn	₦4.29bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	35	22	₦1.91bn	₦1.78bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	25,044	2,312	₦4.94bn	₦4.5bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban Centre	18,818	2,909	₦5.94bn	₦5.92bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	17,431	594	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	15%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	12,109	656	₦1.8bn	₦1.77bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	4,797	246	₦490m	₦490m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	41,323	2,297	₦287m	₦287m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	13,624	1,610	₦2.13bn	₦2.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,196	1,402	₦8.13bn	₦7.87bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,686	0	₦71.9m	₦71.9m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,679	0	₦40.1m	₦40.1m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,427	286	₦76.1m	₦76.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	797	140	₦562m	₦562m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	434	337	₦1.6bn	₦1.42bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	177	128	₦188m	₦188m	83%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	155	131	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	151	131	₦43.1m	₦43.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	122	1	₦110m	₦110m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	78,199	6,717	₦14.2bn	₦13.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	76,749	6,205	₦11.5bn	₦11.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
SME High	925	145	₦666m	₦665m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	525	367	₦2.01bn	₦1.87bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	41,412	2,377	₦292m	₦292m
2.0	13,857	1,597	₦3.11bn	₦3.02bn
3.0	10,247	1,600	₦9.21bn	₦8.86bn
1.0	7,097	1,037	₦700m	₦676m
4.0	4,833	16	₦311m	₦309m
5.0	679	76	₦323m	₦323m
6.0	74	14	₦220m	₦220m