Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Dukku, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Dukku has 127,866 buildings with a viable rooftop and 639 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.85bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,866

Usable roof area

2.92 km²

639 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.85bn/yr

7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dukku

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.85bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.69bn

Lifetime cash saved₦432bn

NPV₦60.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity72 MWp

Capex₦78.6bn

Year-one energy value₦85.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦697bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dukku's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 72 MWp
Capital cost: ₦78.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦85.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦697bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dukku pays back quickly

Of the 125,273 buildings in Dukku with a modelled payback, 19.6% pay back inside five years and 3.0% inside three.

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How much of Dukku's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dukku consume 17.1 GWh/yr but want 27.7 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dukku

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dukku actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,273 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,866 in Dukku. 34,832 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,720 (3%)

Under 5 years24,570 (20%)

Under 7 years34,960 (28%)

Under 10 years47,118 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,152 (34%)

Above 15%34,832 (27%)

Above 20%26,908 (21%)

Above 25%20,680 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

16.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.95 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

356k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dukku.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dukku

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	39,468	700	₦1.96bn	₦1.95bn	7%	15.6 yr
C	38,035	716	₦2.19bn	₦2.08bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	30,722	1,098	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	7%	15.4 yr
B	11,379	474	₦1.17bn	₦1.13bn	19%	5.6 yr
A	8,262	683	₦778m	₦778m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	125,868	2,048	₦4.33bn	₦4.25bn	7%	14.9 yr
Worship	1,017	819	₦101m	₦101m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	551	449	₦2.99bn	₦2.91bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	317	252	₦393m	₦393m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	81	78	₦5.5m	₦5.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	26	23	₦28m	₦28m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	3	0	₦467k	₦467k	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦1.65m	₦1.65m	55%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦40.4k	₦40.4k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	83,199	1,643	₦350m	₦350m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	27,076	731	₦577m	₦577m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	14,045	584	₦1.07bn	₦1.02bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,917	491	₦1.63bn	₦1.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	567	186	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	62	36	₦2.44bn	₦2.36bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	64,962	1,399	₦4.33bn	₦4.17bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	39,302	1,279	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	16,326	820	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	7,276	173	₦595m	₦595m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	84,439	772	₦223m	₦223m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	19,148	676	₦1.38bn	₦1.34bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	12,994	600	₦2.62bn	₦2.59bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,803	0	₦83m	₦83m	17%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,466	0	₦21.8m	₦21.8m	13%	7.6 yr
Institutional	654	531	₦2.47bn	₦2.38bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	344	276	₦23.3m	₦23.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	330	265	₦16.4m	₦16.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	213	173	₦250m	₦250m	83%	1.1 yr
School	157	124	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	79%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	81	78	₦5.5m	₦5.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	77	63	₦490m	₦487m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	127,866	3,671	₦7.85bn	₦7.69bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	127,276	3,187	₦4.82bn	₦4.74bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	573	469	₦3bn	₦2.92bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	17	15	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	84,682	947	₦231m	₦231m
2.0	20,786	1,051	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn
1.0	11,341	906	₦439m	₦438m
3.0	8,149	766	₦5.6bn	₦5.44bn
4.0	2,908	1	₦105m	₦105m