Gombe State

Rooftop solar in Kwami, Gombe: what the roofs are worth

Kwami has 140,395 buildings with a viable rooftop and 832 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

140,395

Usable roof area

3.79 km²

832 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.1bn/yr

8.83 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kwami

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦610bn

NPV₦86.8bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.9 yr

Unlocked energy14.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity81.8 MWp

Capex₦88.8bn

Year-one energy value₦93bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.38tn

NPV₦757bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kwami's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 81.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦88.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93bn/yr
NPV: ₦757bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kwami pays back quickly

Of the 139,270 buildings in Kwami with a modelled payback, 27.7% pay back inside five years and 4.2% inside three.

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How much of Kwami's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kwami consume 24.2 GWh/yr but want 39 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kwami

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kwami actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 139,270 buildings with a modelled result out of 140,395 in Kwami. 63,512 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,856 (4%)

Under 5 years38,629 (28%)

Under 7 years63,773 (46%)

Under 10 years80,658 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%76,495 (54%)

Above 15%63,512 (45%)

Above 20%44,255 (32%)

Above 25%31,466 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

23.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

357k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kwami.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kwami

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,930	2,051	₦3.53bn	₦3.38bn	7%	14.1 yr
B	37,886	1,856	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn	19%	5.4 yr
D	30,047	1,081	₦1.76bn	₦1.6bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	18,809	419	₦727m	₦727m	7%	14.9 yr
A	13,723	302	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	137,887	3,813	₦7.61bn	₦7.3bn	11%	8.4 yr
Worship	1,497	1,198	₦191m	₦191m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	451	329	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	383	268	₦822m	₦822m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	99	57	₦9.85m	₦9.85m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	73	41	₦57.2m	₦57.2m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦562k	₦562k	39%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦3.38m	₦3.38m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦2.19m	₦2.19m	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	81,655	2,594	₦742m	₦588m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	32,084	1,135	₦887m	₦886m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	19,977	925	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,668	728	₦2.28bn	₦2.14bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	955	294	₦3.31bn	₦3.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	56	33	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	42,426	1,590	₦3.29bn	₦3.24bn	7%	15.6 yr
Rural	38,324	1,897	₦1.98bn	₦1.82bn	9%	9.6 yr
Urban	27,207	1,385	₦3.55bn	₦3.45bn	17%	6.4 yr
Dense Urban	18,251	491	₦958m	₦958m	21%	5.4 yr
Urban Centre	14,187	346	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	81,555	1,544	₦343m	₦343m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	28,295	1,145	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	16,798	1,073	₦4.73bn	₦4.43bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,846	2	₦124m	₦124m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,269	49	₦72.8m	₦72.8m	17%	6.1 yr
Institutional	781	610	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	500	398	₦45.4m	₦45.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	497	398	₦32.4m	₦32.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	174	130	₦216m	₦216m	83%	1.4 yr
School	127	88	₦196m	₦196m	79%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	99	57	₦9.85m	₦9.85m	49%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	65	49	₦440m	₦440m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	140,395	5,709	₦11.1bn	₦10.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	139,814	5,294	₦8.34bn	₦8.03bn	13%	8.1 yr
Enterprise	497	359	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	84	56	₦331m	₦331m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	81,497	1,792	₦351m	₦351m
2.0	26,042	1,442	₦2.46bn	₦2.32bn
1.0	14,155	1,330	₦984m	₦829m
3.0	12,916	1,083	₦6.76bn	₦6.76bn
4.0	5,781	58	₦431m	₦431m
5.0	4	4	₦149m	₦149m