Fct State

Rooftop solar in Municipal Area Council, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Municipal Area Council has 885,301 buildings with a viable rooftop and 17.5 GWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦578bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

885,301

Usable roof area

77.7 km²

17.5 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦578bn/yr

378 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Municipal Area Council

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦578bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦566bn

Lifetime cash saved₦32tn

NPV₦4.36tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy720 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.53 GWp

Capex₦2.32tn

Year-one energy value₦1.2tn

Lifetime energy value₦55.5tn

NPV₦8.42tn

Median IRR61%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Municipal Area Council's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.53 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.32tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.2tn/yr
NPV: ₦8.42tn
Median IRR: 61%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Municipal Area Council pays back quickly

Of the 840,911 buildings in Municipal Area Council with a modelled payback, 59.3% pay back inside five years and 17.8% inside three.

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How much of Municipal Area Council's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Municipal Area Council consume 1.7 TWh/yr but want 2.42 TWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Municipal Area Council

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Municipal Area Council actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 840,911 buildings with a modelled result out of 885,301 in Municipal Area Council. 633,661 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years150,033 (18%)

Under 5 years498,523 (59%)

Under 7 years633,684 (75%)

Under 10 years732,205 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%718,226 (81%)

Above 15%633,661 (72%)

Above 20%535,330 (60%)

Above 25%430,295 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

1.25 Mt/yr

Fuel avoided

153 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

720 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

1.53m

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Municipal Area Council.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Municipal Area Council

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	601,183	111,137	₦427bn	₦418bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	224,342	62,799	₦106bn	₦105bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	36,919	11,220	₦32.8bn	₦31.8bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	11,854	2,679	₦5.48bn	₦5.15bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	11,003	1,828	₦6.56bn	₦6.45bn	9%	12.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	796,081	163,083	₦175bn	₦171bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	43,690	13,662	₦256bn	₦251bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	35,812	10,505	₦6.71bn	₦6.71bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	3,753	1,106	₦117bn	₦116bn	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	2,493	467	₦16.8bn	₦15.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	1,810	490	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	526	98	₦2.91bn	₦2.91bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	509	122	₦1.1bn	₦1.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	351	66	₦302m	₦302m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	143	34	₦353m	₦352m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	133	30	₦187m	₦187m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	273,123	54,981	₦9.01bn	₦8.11bn	15%	6.1 yr
100 250m2	196,412	47,956	₦103bn	₦102bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	195,955	32,650	₦21.6bn	₦20.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	135,533	25,979	₦7.77bn	₦7.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	80,511	26,590	₦252bn	₦249bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	3,767	1,507	₦184bn	₦180bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	755,622	149,723	₦436bn	₦428bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	55,913	24,565	₦64.3bn	₦63.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	48,667	11,426	₦71.7bn	₦69.6bn	23%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	22,908	3,513	₦5.36bn	₦5.1bn	15%	6.1 yr
Rural	2,191	436	₦622m	₦622m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	352,512	49,689	₦39.3bn	₦38.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	152,562	14,075	₦6.55bn	₦6.54bn	15%	6.1 yr
Shed	145,443	37,090	₦4.46bn	₦4.46bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	79,948	30,296	₦15.2bn	₦13.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	53,860	29,960	₦109bn	₦107bn	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	35,820	10,509	₦6.24bn	₦6.24bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	18,732	6,417	₦125bn	₦122bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	15,155	4,969	₦89.4bn	₦88.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	8,183	1,270	₦614m	₦614m	27%	4.1 yr
Unknown	3,635	852	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Duplex	3,568	702	₦428m	₦428m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	3,449	676	₦20.9bn	₦20.7bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	874,083	184,953	₦533bn	₦522bn
Industrial	6,617	3,703	₦33.8bn	₦33.8bn
Commercial	3,272	674	₦9.71bn	₦9.62bn
Retail	1,217	325	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn
Farmland	100	8	₦306m	₦306m
Farmyard	12	0	₦27.4m	₦27.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	845,530	176,742	₦236bn	₦230bn	23%	4.4 yr
SME High	36,023	11,809	₦225bn	₦221bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	3,748	1,112	₦117bn	₦115bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	282,908	38,489	₦168bn	₦166bn
3.0	214,107	62,609	₦197bn	₦193bn
2.0	171,315	33,713	₦15.4bn	₦13.4bn
0.0	137,214	36,435	₦4.37bn	₦4.37bn
1.0	56,476	10,382	₦2.85bn	₦2.69bn
5.0	16,761	5,130	₦71.7bn	₦70.8bn
6.0	6,520	2,905	₦119bn	₦116bn