Fct State

Rooftop solar in Kuje, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Kuje has 111,130 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.72 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦151bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

111,130

Usable roof area

7.7 km²

1.72 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦151bn/yr

136 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kuje

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦151bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦136bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.76tn

NPV₦1.09tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy45 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity248 MWp

Capex₦259bn

Year-one energy value₦240bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.2tn

NPV₦1.91tn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kuje's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 248 MWp
Capital cost: ₦259bn
Year 1 savings: ₦240bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.91tn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kuje pays back quickly

Of the 107,224 buildings in Kuje with a modelled payback, 58.3% pay back inside five years and 32.0% inside three.

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How much of Kuje's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kuje consume 184 GWh/yr but want 229 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kuje

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kuje actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 107,224 buildings with a modelled result out of 111,130 in Kuje. 77,916 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years34,354 (32%)

Under 5 years62,461 (58%)

Under 7 years77,891 (73%)

Under 10 years89,088 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%87,255 (79%)

Above 15%77,916 (70%)

Above 20%66,288 (60%)

Above 25%56,407 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

220 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

77.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

45 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

540k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kuje.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kuje

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	42,828	12,228	₦27.6bn	₦27.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	25,421	8,851	₦53.7bn	₦45.8bn	23%	4.1 yr
C	21,822	9,366	₦24.1bn	₦23.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	14,757	5,430	₦44.1bn	₦37.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	6,302	486	₦1.19bn	₦1.16bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	108,991	34,609	₦132bn	₦118bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	740	588	₦4.01bn	₦3.98bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	458	344	₦431m	₦431m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	421	331	₦13.2bn	₦12.8bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	381	378	₦130m	₦130m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	59	55	₦49.9m	₦49.9m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	39	31	₦171m	₦171m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	34	20	₦478m	₦319m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	1	₦4.99m	₦4.99m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	2	₦2m	₦2m	45%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦5.05m	₦5.05m	37%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,693	10,010	₦1.61bn	₦1.6bn	11%	8.1 yr
100 250m2	25,585	9,929	₦50.1bn	₦45.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	24,730	7,576	₦19.6bn	₦17.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	17,248	5,465	₦3.4bn	₦3.28bn	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,643	3,190	₦54.3bn	₦48.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	231	191	₦21.8bn	₦20bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	39,123	8,893	₦15.8bn	₦15.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	28,760	13,864	₦58.2bn	₦55.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	22,623	4,690	₦36bn	₦30bn	9%	8.6 yr
Rural	11,350	5,149	₦32.8bn	₦26.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Dense Urban	9,274	3,765	₦7.92bn	₦7.92bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,613	10,675	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	13%	7.6 yr
Residential Small	27,749	11,293	₦26.7bn	₦23.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	18,382	1,674	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	14,826	8,514	₦102bn	₦90bn	61%	1.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,142	1,952	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	901	339	₦211m	₦211m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	431	426	₦171m	₦171m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	372	296	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	370	160	₦93.2m	₦93.2m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	316	276	₦2.54bn	₦2.51bn	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	171	127	₦102m	₦102m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	149	112	₦74.3m	₦74.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	111,097	36,352	₦151bn	₦136bn
Industrial	32	9	₦44.1m	₦44.1m
Farmland	1	0	₦72k	₦72k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	110,237	35,612	₦134bn	₦120bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	461	418	₦3.35bn	₦3.25bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	432	331	₦13.3bn	₦12.8bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,902	10,664	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
3.0	34,052	14,960	₦126bn	₦113bn
2.0	19,133	6,062	₦15.8bn	₦14.6bn
4.0	15,251	2,794	₦4.03bn	₦4.03bn
1.0	5,781	1,872	₦2.69bn	₦2.55bn
5.0	11	9	₦561m	₦535m