Fct State

Rooftop solar in Abaji, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Abaji has 40,674 buildings with a viable rooftop and 539 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦59.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,674

Usable roof area

2.42 km²

539 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦59.3bn/yr

53.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abaji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦59.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.65tn

NPV₦426bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy25.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity123 MWp

Capex₦124bn

Year-one energy value₦115bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.36tn

NPV₦915bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Abaji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 123 MWp
Capital cost: ₦124bn
Year 1 savings: ₦115bn/yr
NPV: ₦915bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abaji pays back quickly

Of the 40,579 buildings in Abaji with a modelled payback, 62.2% pay back inside five years and 35.0% inside three.

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How much of Abaji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abaji consume 78.9 GWh/yr but want 104 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abaji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abaji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 40,579 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,674 in Abaji. 27,279 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,191 (35%)

Under 5 years25,221 (62%)

Under 7 years27,276 (67%)

Under 10 years30,734 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,706 (73%)

Above 15%27,279 (67%)

Above 20%25,799 (63%)

Above 25%23,877 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

89 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

257k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abaji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abaji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,987	4,785	₦23.8bn	₦20.9bn	17%	6.4 yr
D	14,587	6,066	₦24.8bn	₦22.4bn	27%	3.9 yr
C	9,100	3,496	₦10.7bn	₦9.37bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	37,309	12,020	₦48.7bn	₦42.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,641	1,119	₦5.51bn	₦5.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,230	785	₦246m	₦246m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	305	253	₦4.61bn	₦3.97bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	183	167	₦208m	₦208m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦3.79m	₦3.79m	53%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦179k	₦179k	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦4.79m	₦4.79m	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦44.1k	₦44.1k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	15,020	3,619	₦725m	₦720m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	8,941	3,428	₦8.63bn	₦7.55bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	7,467	3,690	₦22.3bn	₦19.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	7,417	2,466	₦1.82bn	₦1.57bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,772	1,107	₦20.9bn	₦19.1bn	47%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	57	37	₦4.97bn	₦4.48bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	13,467	4,404	₦21.6bn	₦20bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	11,089	2,099	₦18.1bn	₦13.3bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,087	5,168	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	33%	3.1 yr
Urban	5,031	2,676	₦8.05bn	₦7.89bn	41%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	15,793	3,162	₦410m	₦410m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	11,022	4,226	₦10.7bn	₦9.21bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,430	2,966	₦36bn	₦31.6bn	63%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,953	1,468	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,853	187	₦255m	₦181m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,230	785	₦246m	₦246m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	1,085	687	₦3.56bn	₦3.56bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	351	265	₦638m	₦633m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	223	195	₦3.27bn	₦2.93bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	180	9	₦15.5m	₦15.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	104	92	₦534m	₦534m	83%	1.4 yr
School	88	75	₦277m	₦277m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,647	14,347	₦59.3bn	₦52.7bn
Farmyard	25	0	₦1.63m	₦1.63m
Allotments	2	0	₦84.2k	₦84.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,928	13,140	₦50.5bn	₦44.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,438	952	₦4.2bn	₦4.19bn	43%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	308	255	₦4.61bn	₦3.98bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	15,797	3,165	₦408m	₦408m
3.0	10,276	5,503	₦44.5bn	₦39.4bn
2.0	7,728	3,309	₦8.65bn	₦7.41bn
4.0	3,656	812	₦2.74bn	₦2.66bn
1.0	2,472	1,234	₦1.31bn	₦1.15bn
5.0	594	242	₦705m	₦705m
6.0	151	82	₦970m	₦968m