Fct State

Rooftop solar in Bwari, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Bwari has 291,991 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.92 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦124bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

291,991

Usable roof area

21.9 km²

4.92 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦124bn/yr

94.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bwari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦124bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦120bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.6tn

NPV₦945bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy118 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity451 MWp

Capex₦433bn

Year-one energy value₦280bn

Lifetime energy value₦13.1tn

NPV₦2.09tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Bwari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 451 MWp
Capital cost: ₦433bn
Year 1 savings: ₦280bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.09tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bwari pays back quickly

Of the 277,942 buildings in Bwari with a modelled payback, 55.9% pay back inside five years and 17.5% inside three.

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How much of Bwari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bwari consume 285 GWh/yr but want 403 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bwari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bwari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 277,942 buildings with a modelled result out of 291,991 in Bwari. 201,765 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years48,584 (17%)

Under 5 years155,364 (56%)

Under 7 years201,885 (73%)

Under 10 years235,799 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%230,583 (79%)

Above 15%201,765 (69%)

Above 20%167,605 (57%)

Above 25%133,381 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

241 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

45.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

118 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

512k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bwari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bwari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	152,106	29,633	₦59.9bn	₦58.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	93,971	16,285	₦35.5bn	₦34.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	18,352	7,774	₦17.8bn	₦17.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
E	17,733	3,401	₦6.09bn	₦5.9bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	9,829	1,812	₦4.24bn	₦4.16bn	11%	8.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	271,201	51,732	₦65.1bn	₦62.6bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	9,859	3,545	₦41.3bn	₦40.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	8,721	2,810	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,095	383	₦14.4bn	₦14.1bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	702	308	₦307m	₦307m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	187	51	₦667m	₦664m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	163	56	₦417m	₦415m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	24	9	₦45m	₦45m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	22	6	₦13m	₦13m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	11	4	₦18m	₦18m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	6	1	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	87,146	16,095	₦2bn	₦1.92bn	13%	7.1 yr
100 250m2	72,755	18,165	₦36.3bn	₦35.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	70,025	10,288	₦7.31bn	₦6.88bn	23%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	42,837	7,289	₦1.94bn	₦1.84bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	18,689	6,779	₦52.2bn	₦50.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	539	289	₦23.8bn	₦23.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	225,746	38,880	₦77.6bn	₦76.2bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	29,381	12,456	₦23.8bn	₦22.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	28,404	4,711	₦17.2bn	₦16.4bn	15%	7.1 yr
Dense Urban	4,989	2,657	₦3.82bn	₦3.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
Rural	3,471	201	₦1.2bn	₦1.18bn	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	101,444	12,657	₦6.68bn	₦6.64bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	59,954	4,691	₦2.19bn	₦2.18bn	15%	6.1 yr
Shed	47,543	10,354	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Small	35,218	12,605	₦8.57bn	₦8.07bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	21,459	10,500	₦46bn	₦44.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	8,719	2,810	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	5,270	1,971	₦26.2bn	₦25.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	3,677	657	₦284m	₦284m	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,969	1,156	₦12bn	₦12bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	1,901	268	₦113m	₦113m	27%	4.1 yr
Unknown	757	192	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	687	287	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	291,445	58,693	₦122bn	₦119bn
Industrial	312	59	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn
Commercial	233	152	₦339m	₦339m
Farmland	1	1	₦25.5k	₦25.5k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	282,489	55,340	₦70.4bn	₦67.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	8,381	3,168	₦38.6bn	₦38.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,121	397	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	94,934	10,668	₦21.1bn	₦20.9bn
3.0	76,417	22,231	₦63.6bn	₦61.3bn
2.0	53,245	10,424	₦5.04bn	₦4.78bn
0.0	44,641	10,322	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn
1.0	17,241	3,355	₦777m	₦738m
5.0	4,226	1,271	₦9.69bn	₦9.55bn
6.0	1,287	634	₦22.2bn	₦21.9bn