Fct State

Rooftop solar in Gwagwalada, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Gwagwalada has 169,993 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.53 GWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦136bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

169,993

Usable roof area

11.3 km²

2.53 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦136bn/yr

111 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwagwalada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦136bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦127bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.53tn

NPV₦997bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy72.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity353 MWp

Capex₦355bn

Year-one energy value₦277bn

Lifetime energy value₦12.9tn

NPV₦2.14tn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Gwagwalada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 353 MWp
Capital cost: ₦355bn
Year 1 savings: ₦277bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.14tn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwagwalada pays back quickly

Of the 163,577 buildings in Gwagwalada with a modelled payback, 60.4% pay back inside five years and 21.2% inside three.

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How much of Gwagwalada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwagwalada consume 218 GWh/yr but want 291 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwagwalada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwagwalada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 163,577 buildings with a modelled result out of 169,993 in Gwagwalada. 121,550 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years34,620 (21%)

Under 5 years98,767 (60%)

Under 7 years121,543 (74%)

Under 10 years135,574 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%133,120 (78%)

Above 15%121,550 (72%)

Above 20%104,961 (62%)

Above 25%88,309 (52%)

CO₂ avoided

226 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

64.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

72.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

641k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwagwalada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwagwalada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	80,331	19,275	₦37.9bn	₦37.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	35,499	10,552	₦44.6bn	₦42.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	21,686	3,438	₦25.7bn	₦21.7bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	19,018	4,776	₦22.6bn	₦20.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	13,459	3,368	₦4.73bn	₦4.73bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	157,395	38,530	₦111bn	₦103bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	6,077	1,320	₦9.84bn	₦9.83bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	5,542	1,033	₦495m	₦495m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	625	351	₦13.9bn	₦13.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	242	139	₦182m	₦182m	43%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	66	22	₦200m	₦200m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	17	9	₦34.7m	₦34.7m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	13	3	₦6.13m	₦6.13m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	11	0	₦9.53m	₦9.53m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	2	₦3.7m	₦3.7m	35%	2.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦12.6k	₦12.6k	25%	4.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	55,231	10,866	₦1.72bn	₦1.71bn	11%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	41,631	8,557	₦12.3bn	₦11.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	39,284	12,260	₦44.1bn	₦41.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	25,839	5,537	₦2.96bn	₦2.78bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	7,757	4,026	₦55.5bn	₦51.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	251	163	₦18.9bn	₦18.1bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	86,025	26,089	₦60.7bn	₦59bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	34,988	4,938	₦10.9bn	₦10.3bn	21%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	25,771	3,581	₦32.3bn	₦27bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	12,231	4,351	₦24.8bn	₦24bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	10,978	2,450	₦6.86bn	₦6.35bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	41,961	5,382	₦3.67bn	₦3.67bn	19%	5.1 yr
Shed	39,943	7,995	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	35,521	10,712	₦13.7bn	₦13.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	24,052	7,321	₦14.3bn	₦13.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	13,280	6,386	₦77.8bn	₦70.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	5,545	1,035	₦498m	₦498m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	3,353	821	₦5.73bn	₦5.73bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,211	270	₦2.55bn	₦2.55bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	1,793	504	₦319m	₦319m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	845	230	₦152m	₦152m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	362	224	₦10.8bn	₦10.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	194	112	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	169,992	41,408	₦136bn	₦127bn
Industrial	1	1	₦4.56m	₦4.56m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	163,747	39,957	₦113bn	₦105bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	5,618	1,102	₦8.37bn	₦8.37bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	628	350	₦14bn	₦13.2bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	53,964	9,626	₦18.9bn	₦18.7bn
3.0	39,094	13,809	₦95.6bn	₦88.5bn
0.0	38,794	7,987	₦1000m	₦1000m
2.0	26,708	7,200	₦11.9bn	₦10.7bn
1.0	8,123	2,270	₦2.78bn	₦2.58bn
5.0	2,918	454	₦3.52bn	₦3.52bn
6.0	392	63	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn