Fct State

Rooftop solar in Kwali, Fct: what the roofs are worth

Kwali has 67,786 buildings with a viable rooftop and 898 MWp of roof capacity. 32% run a generator, and together they spend ₦95.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

67,786

Usable roof area

4.02 km²

898 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦95.9bn/yr

88.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kwali

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦95.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦88.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.45tn

NPV₦707bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy43.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity217 MWp

Capex₦214bn

Year-one energy value₦186bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.68tn

NPV₦1.47tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kwali's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 217 MWp
Capital cost: ₦214bn
Year 1 savings: ₦186bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.47tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kwali pays back quickly

Of the 66,916 buildings in Kwali with a modelled payback, 63.6% pay back inside five years and 31.4% inside three.

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How much of Kwali's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kwali consume 138 GWh/yr but want 182 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kwali

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kwali actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,916 buildings with a modelled result out of 67,786 in Kwali. 46,915 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,033 (31%)

Under 5 years42,584 (64%)

Under 7 years46,909 (70%)

Under 10 years51,113 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,960 (74%)

Above 15%46,915 (69%)

Above 20%43,739 (65%)

Above 25%40,235 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

149 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

46.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

43.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

357k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kwali.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kwali

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	24,384	7,016	₦37.1bn	₦32.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	20,035	6,576	₦27.2bn	₦25.4bn	27%	3.9 yr
C	16,244	6,502	₦26.6bn	₦25.2bn	33%	3.1 yr
B	7,123	1,268	₦5.11bn	₦5.07bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,053	17,094	₦70.5bn	₦63.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Retail	4,460	1,586	₦593m	₦593m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	4,437	1,979	₦10.7bn	₦10.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	437	365	₦13.9bn	₦13bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	349	299	₦214m	₦214m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	29	18	₦52.2m	₦50m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	14	14	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	7	7	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	26,237	5,729	₦1.04bn	₦1.02bn	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	15,499	5,217	₦9.9bn	₦9.28bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	12,264	5,151	₦24.5bn	₦22.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
30 50m2	11,246	3,683	₦2.02bn	₦1.94bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,333	1,414	₦35.6bn	₦31.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	207	168	₦22.8bn	₦21.7bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	20,874	3,300	₦27.5bn	₦22.8bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	16,744	4,821	₦12.5bn	₦12.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Urban	12,283	7,546	₦36.8bn	₦34.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Rural	11,240	4,033	₦16.4bn	₦15.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	6,645	1,662	₦2.81bn	₦2.79bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	24,543	5,690	₦692m	₦692m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	16,175	6,351	₦11.4bn	₦10.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,979	4,064	₦56.9bn	₦50.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,865	645	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	21%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,473	1,599	₦609m	₦609m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,219	319	₦301m	₦283m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	3,419	1,578	₦8.26bn	₦8.23bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	732	190	₦928m	₦928m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	367	310	₦12.8bn	₦12bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	154	6	₦8.1m	₦8.1m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	149	125	₦846m	₦846m	83%	1.4 yr
School	126	102	₦307m	₦307m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	67,774	21,350	₦94.4bn	₦86.9bn
Industrial	12	12	₦1.54bn	₦1.24bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,183	19,218	₦72.8bn	₦65.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	4,157	1,774	₦9.2bn	₦9.17bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	446	370	₦13.9bn	₦13bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	24,560	5,707	₦695m	₦695m
3.0	16,471	7,074	₦71.5bn	₦65.2bn
2.0	13,844	4,936	₦11.1bn	₦9.86bn
4.0	5,436	710	₦2.8bn	₦2.78bn
1.0	4,477	1,789	₦2.66bn	₦2.42bn
5.0	2,734	993	₦3.68bn	₦3.68bn
6.0	264	153	₦3.52bn	₦3.5bn