Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Fct State: buildings, spend and payback

1,566,875 buildings in Fct State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.14tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 23% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,566,875

Usable roof area

125 km²

28.1 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.14tn/yr

862 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Fct

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.14tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.09tn

Lifetime cash saved₦59tn

NPV₦8.52tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy1.02 TWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.92 GWp

Capex₦3.7tn

Year-one energy value₦2.3tn

Lifetime energy value₦107tn

NPV₦16.9tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Fct State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.92 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.7tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.3tn/yr
NPV: ₦16.9tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Fct State pays back quickly

Of the 1,497,149 buildings in Fct State with a modelled payback, 59.0% pay back inside five years and 20.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

59.0%

Payback under 3 years

20.2%

IRR above 20%

60.2%

Under 3 years · 20%3 – 5 years · 39%5 – 7 years · 15%7 – 10 years · 11%Over 10 years · 15%

Coverage: 96% of buildings in Fct State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Fct State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Fct State consume 2.6 TWh/yr but want 3.63 TWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 72%Suppressed · 28%

Energy wanted

3.63 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.6 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

1.02 TWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Fct State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,497,149 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,566,875 in Fct State. 1,109,086 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years302,815 (20%)

Under 5 years882,920 (59%)

Under 7 years1,109,188 (74%)

Under 10 years1,274,513 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,248,850 (80%)

Above 15%1,109,086 (71%)

Above 20%943,722 (60%)

Above 25%772,504 (49%)

Electricity billing bands in Fct State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Fct State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	773,050	144,624	₦493bn	₦483bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	448,595	111,855	₦212bn	₦209bn	23%	4.4 yr
C	137,936	48,910	₦157bn	₦149bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	118,065	30,170	₦152bn	₦132bn	11%	8.9 yr
D	89,229	26,488	₦130bn	₦117bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,429,030	317,068	₦603bn	₦561bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	66,444	22,213	₦327bn	₦322bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	56,146	17,097	₦9.51bn	₦9.51bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	6,636	2,789	₦177bn	₦173bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	3,744	1,747	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	2,793	579	₦17.8bn	₦16.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	755	227	₦2.09bn	₦1.91bn	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	564	108	₦2.97bn	₦2.97bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	451	143	₦386m	₦386m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	170	43	₦382m	₦382m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	142	33	₦199m	₦199m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	494,450	101,300	₦16.1bn	₦15.1bn	13%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	356,781	67,716	₦79.3bn	₦72.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	353,767	97,151	₦281bn	₦266bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	240,120	50,419	₦19.9bn	₦18.7bn	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	116,705	43,106	₦470bn	₦450bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	5,052	2,355	₦277bn	₦268bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	1,113,161	225,247	₦593bn	₦581bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	157,428	29,807	₦203bn	₦179bn	13%	7.1 yr
Urban	143,599	65,458	₦216bn	₦208bn	27%	3.9 yr
Dense Urban	99,990	24,862	₦52.1bn	₦50.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	52,697	16,673	₦79.5bn	₦70.3bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	515,677	76,845	₦63.2bn	₦62.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	310,878	74,966	₦9.26bn	₦9.26bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Formal	269,691	26,606	₦14.2bn	₦14.1bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	194,164	72,092	₦86.8bn	₦78.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	116,834	62,390	₦427bn	₦394bn	39%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	56,218	17,164	₦9.05bn	₦9.05bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	32,175	11,750	₦171bn	₦168bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	21,541	6,973	₦106bn	₦105bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	14,888	2,785	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	6,874	1,377	₦800m	₦800m	27%	4.1 yr
Unknown	4,748	1,176	₦13.9bn	₦13.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial	3,720	762	₦21.7bn	₦21.5bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,555,038	357,103	₦1.09tn	₦1.04tn
Industrial	6,974	3,784	₦36.8bn	₦36.4bn
Commercial	3,505	826	₦10bn	₦9.96bn
Retail	1,217	325	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn
Farmland	102	9	₦306m	₦306m
Farmyard	37	0	₦29m	₦29m
Allotments	2	0	₦84.2k	₦84.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,504,114	340,009	₦678bn	₦633bn	23%	4.4 yr
SME High	56,078	19,223	₦289bn	₦284bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	6,683	2,815	₦177bn	₦172bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	456,149	63,099	₦217bn	₦215bn
3.0	390,417	126,186	₦599bn	₦560bn
0.0	297,908	74,280	₦9.12bn	₦9.12bn
2.0	291,973	65,644	₦67.9bn	₦60.6bn
1.0	94,570	20,902	₦13.1bn	₦12.1bn
5.0	27,244	8,099	₦89.8bn	₦88.7bn
6.0	8,614	3,837	₦147bn	₦144bn