Ebonyi State

Rooftop solar in Onicha, Ebonyi: what the roofs are worth

Onicha has 53,754 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.05 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,754

Usable roof area

4.67 km²

1.05 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.9bn/yr

24.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Onicha

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.24tn

NPV₦196bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy22.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity120 MWp

Capex₦123bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.39tn

NPV₦913bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Onicha's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 120 MWp
Capital cost: ₦123bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦913bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Onicha pays back quickly

Of the 53,421 buildings in Onicha with a modelled payback, 64.4% pay back inside five years and 31.5% inside three.

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How much of Onicha's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Onicha consume 34.4 GWh/yr but want 56.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Onicha

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Onicha actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,421 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,754 in Onicha. 41,508 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,854 (32%)

Under 5 years34,398 (64%)

Under 7 years41,464 (78%)

Under 10 years45,715 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,576 (83%)

Above 15%41,508 (77%)

Above 20%36,909 (69%)

Above 25%29,306 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

43.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

305k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Onicha.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Onicha

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	26,351	7,621	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	22,019	7,476	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	5,384	1,769	₦2.79bn	₦2.79bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,028	14,247	₦15.5bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,135	1,100	₦4.3bn	₦4.28bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	613	575	₦723m	₦723m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	484	470	₦2.35bn	₦2.29bn	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial	291	277	₦881m	₦880m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	186	181	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	17	16	₦74.8m	₦74.8m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	18,185	5,043	₦2.77bn	₦2.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	17,845	6,224	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	7,692	2,082	₦471m	₦471m	11%	9.4 yr
Under 30m2	6,734	1,958	₦256m	₦255m	7%	14.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,267	1,535	₦8.49bn	₦8.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	31	24	₦1.16bn	₦1.11bn	75%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	39,288	12,909	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,613	2,676	₦4.97bn	₦4.96bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	6,853	1,281	₦2.23bn	₦2.22bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	24,557	6,620	₦3.09bn	₦3.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	16,128	5,331	₦12.2bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	10,239	2,243	₦225m	₦225m	9%	13.4 yr
Institutional	784	744	₦2.15bn	₦2.11bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	417	415	₦2.41bn	₦2.4bn	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	286	272	₦867m	₦867m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	248	231	₦163m	₦163m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	195	190	₦544m	₦544m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	186	181	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	148	142	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Market	116	112	₦172m	₦172m	65%	1.6 yr
School	116	113	₦175m	₦175m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,749	16,866	₦23.9bn	₦23.8bn
Farmland	5	0	₦361k	₦361k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	52,499	15,646	₦17.8bn	₦17.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	775	747	₦3.23bn	₦3.17bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	480	473	₦2.89bn	₦2.88bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	23,119	6,917	₦4.86bn	₦4.86bn
3.0	14,621	5,851	₦15.7bn	₦15.7bn
0.0	10,287	2,265	₦235m	₦235m
1.0	5,495	1,603	₦583m	₦583m
4.0	218	217	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn
5.0	13	12	₦591m	₦590m
6.0	1	1	₦139m	₦129m