Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Ebonyi State: buildings, spend and payback

805,726 buildings in Ebonyi State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦326bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 22% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

805,726

Usable roof area

63.2 km²

14.1 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦326bn/yr

309 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ebonyi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦326bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦321bn

Lifetime cash saved₦16.8tn

NPV₦2.6tn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy283 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.48 GWp

Capex₦1.47tn

Year-one energy value₦1.26tn

Lifetime energy value₦59.6tn

NPV₦9.99tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ebonyi State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.48 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.47tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.26tn/yr
NPV: ₦9.99tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ebonyi State pays back quickly

Of the 788,143 buildings in Ebonyi State with a modelled payback, 49.2% pay back inside five years and 22.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

49.2%

Payback under 3 years

22.2%

IRR above 20%

52.9%

Under 3 years · 22%3 – 5 years · 27%5 – 7 years · 17%7 – 10 years · 11%Over 10 years · 23%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Ebonyi State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Ebonyi State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ebonyi State consume 510 GWh/yr but want 793 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 64%Suppressed · 36%

Energy wanted

793 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

510 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

283 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Ebonyi State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 788,143 buildings with a modelled result out of 805,726 in Ebonyi State. 521,455 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years174,699 (22%)

Under 5 years387,452 (49%)

Under 7 years520,535 (66%)

Under 10 years604,380 (77%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%588,038 (73%)

Above 15%521,455 (65%)

Above 20%426,592 (53%)

Above 25%313,056 (39%)

Electricity billing bands in Ebonyi State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ebonyi State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	314,056	69,758	₦133bn	₦131bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	276,729	57,731	₦102bn	₦101bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	132,059	33,870	₦55.8bn	₦54.7bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	47,861	4,789	₦22.2bn	₦22bn	19%	4.9 yr
B	35,021	11,550	₦12.9bn	₦12.6bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	764,434	149,271	₦212bn	₦209bn	21%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	18,014	11,899	₦47.3bn	₦47.2bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	7,570	5,883	₦47.5bn	₦46.3bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	5,483	4,621	₦5.95bn	₦5.89bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4,996	3,475	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,694	2,290	₦633m	₦633m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	340	220	₦546m	₦546m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	133	32	₦728m	₦716m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	39	5	₦70.3m	₦70.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	21	1	₦7.21m	₦7.21m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦2.29m	₦2.29m	31%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	269,604	49,149	₦30.3bn	₦29.9bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	212,021	58,336	₦117bn	₦116bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	147,401	27,246	₦3.66bn	₦3.6bn	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	129,909	23,451	₦5.92bn	₦5.86bn	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	45,934	19,099	₦137bn	₦135bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	857	417	₦31.8bn	₦31bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	513,697	102,863	₦185bn	₦183bn	21%	5.4 yr
Urban Centre	105,766	24,770	₦49.9bn	₦49.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	89,602	33,597	₦48.8bn	₦48bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	88,688	12,679	₦36.8bn	₦35.6bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	7,973	3,789	₦5.46bn	₦5.32bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	332,754	64,701	₦36bn	₦35.5bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	182,907	23,260	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential	171,862	46,121	₦165bn	₦162bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	44,886	12,357	₦7.34bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	30,136	2,290	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	17%	5.4 yr
Institutional	10,581	8,000	₦41.5bn	₦41bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	4,733	2,348	₦17.6bn	₦17.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,702	2,291	₦626m	₦626m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial Site	4,663	3,304	₦9.9bn	₦9.86bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	3,196	2,071	₦9.05bn	₦9.04bn	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	2,936	2,424	₦7.38bn	₦7.38bn	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	2,141	1,782	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	805,069	177,486	₦319bn	₦314bn
Commercial	477	76	₦4.64bn	₦4.54bn
Industrial	171	136	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn
Farmland	7	0	₦442k	₦442k
Farmyard	2	0	₦82.1k	₦82.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	784,886	163,745	₦240bn	₦237bn	21%	5.1 yr
Enterprise	12,445	9,290	₦57.8bn	₦56.5bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	8,395	4,663	₦27.6bn	₦27.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	309,191	67,557	₦52.6bn	₦51.9bn
0.0	183,769	23,545	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn
3.0	150,896	56,021	₦222bn	₦219bn
1.0	118,511	17,186	₦6.23bn	₦6.09bn
4.0	40,408	12,408	₦27.4bn	₦27.4bn
5.0	2,223	783	₦9.13bn	₦9.04bn
6.0	728	198	₦5.5bn	₦5.43bn