Ebonyi State

Rooftop solar in Ishielu, Ebonyi: what the roofs are worth

Ishielu has 58,569 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

58,569

Usable roof area

4.48 km²

1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.8bn/yr

16.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ishielu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦776bn

NPV₦121bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy14.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.8 MWp

Capex₦79.8bn

Year-one energy value₦70.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.37tn

NPV₦568bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ishielu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦79.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦568bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ishielu pays back quickly

Of the 57,719 buildings in Ishielu with a modelled payback, 42.2% pay back inside five years and 18.4% inside three.

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How much of Ishielu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ishielu consume 24.6 GWh/yr but want 38.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ishielu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ishielu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 57,719 buildings with a modelled result out of 58,569 in Ishielu. 35,612 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,611 (18%)

Under 5 years24,335 (42%)

Under 7 years35,534 (62%)

Under 10 years43,405 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,882 (72%)

Above 15%35,612 (61%)

Above 20%27,382 (47%)

Above 25%19,309 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

26.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.69 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ishielu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ishielu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	25,113	5,061	₦7.62bn	₦7.62bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	22,316	3,654	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	19%	5.6 yr
C	11,140	1,944	₦3.18bn	₦3.18bn	19%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	55,716	8,133	₦5.88bn	₦5.88bn	19%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	1,150	1,025	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	562	498	₦478m	₦478m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	533	488	₦5.33bn	₦5.33bn	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	316	262	₦731m	₦729m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	283	245	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	8	7	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦621k	₦621k	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	20,660	3,091	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	19%	5.9 yr
100 250m2	15,556	3,264	₦3.97bn	₦3.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	10,048	1,503	₦279m	₦279m	9%	12.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,497	1,677	₦203m	₦200m	5%	15.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,753	1,082	₦5.24bn	₦5.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	55	42	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	38,669	6,762	₦9.42bn	₦9.42bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	11,607	1,163	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	19%	5.9 yr
Dense Urban	4,226	1,054	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	17%	5.6 yr
Rural	4,067	1,680	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	26,131	3,439	₦966m	₦966m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	15,092	2,916	₦4.74bn	₦4.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	14,443	1,768	₦170m	₦170m	7%	14.6 yr
Institutional	760	672	₦4.88bn	₦4.88bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	283	245	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial Site	271	227	₦575m	₦574m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	258	253	₦505m	₦505m	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	251	234	₦833m	₦833m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	213	190	₦115m	₦115m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	212	173	₦472m	₦472m	45%	2.4 yr
Place Of Worship	145	128	₦48.5m	₦48.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Market	125	115	₦82.3m	₦82.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,416	10,539	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn
Industrial	153	120	₦2.52bn	₦2.52bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	57,268	9,493	₦7.83bn	₦7.83bn	19%	5.9 yr
Enterprise	820	731	₦5.99bn	₦5.99bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	481	435	₦990m	₦990m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	22,821	4,073	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn
0.0	14,507	1,796	₦174m	₦174m
1.0	11,289	1,772	₦438m	₦437m
3.0	9,800	2,875	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn
4.0	142	133	₦610m	₦610m
5.0	10	10	₦168m	₦168m