Ebonyi State

Rooftop solar in Ezza South, Ebonyi: what the roofs are worth

Ezza South has 47,610 buildings with a viable rooftop and 812 MWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,610

Usable roof area

3.63 km²

812 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.8bn/yr

12.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ezza South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦673bn

NPV₦104bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity79.3 MWp

Capex₦80.9bn

Year-one energy value₦73.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.47tn

NPV₦586bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ezza South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 79.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦586bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ezza South pays back quickly

Of the 46,932 buildings in Ezza South with a modelled payback, 49.0% pay back inside five years and 19.8% inside three.

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How much of Ezza South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ezza South consume 20.5 GWh/yr but want 34.3 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ezza South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ezza South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,932 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,610 in Ezza South. 31,460 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,276 (20%)

Under 5 years22,995 (49%)

Under 7 years31,399 (67%)

Under 10 years36,778 (78%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,499 (75%)

Above 15%31,460 (66%)

Above 20%25,529 (54%)

Above 25%18,456 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

24.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.19 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

194k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ezza South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ezza South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	20,674	4,393	₦6.27bn	₦6.24bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	18,433	3,208	₦4.34bn	₦4.34bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	8,465	1,768	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	38	36	₦7.27m	₦7.27m	47%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,651	7,629	₦7.58bn	₦7.54bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	628	558	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	527	476	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	496	469	₦516m	₦516m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	272	239	₦710m	₦710m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	20	18	₦60.9m	₦60.9m	59%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	16	16	₦4.66m	₦4.66m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	15,907	2,704	₦1.81bn	₦1.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	13,951	3,098	₦5.17bn	₦5.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	8,600	1,519	₦174m	₦174m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	6,938	1,205	₦270m	₦270m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,184	865	₦4.59bn	₦4.58bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	30	14	₦830m	₦830m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	36,534	7,404	₦10bn	₦10bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	8,206	1,624	₦1.5bn	₦1.5bn	15%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	2,870	377	₦1.32bn	₦1.28bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	21,892	3,777	₦2.09bn	₦2.08bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	11,154	2,290	₦5.32bn	₦5.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	10,795	1,305	₦117m	₦117m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,046	228	₦30.4m	₦30.4m	15%	5.6 yr
Institutional	708	644	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	666	1	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	17%	6.4 yr
Industrial Site	268	236	₦707m	₦707m	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	214	198	₦503m	₦503m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	198	185	₦103m	₦103m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	124	118	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	61%	1.6 yr
School	110	99	₦219m	₦219m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	99	87	₦658m	₦658m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,610	9,405	₦12.8bn	₦12.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,764	8,646	₦9.61bn	₦9.57bn	21%	5.1 yr
Enterprise	796	713	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	50	46	₦280m	₦280m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	21,515	4,174	₦3.9bn	₦3.88bn
0.0	10,900	1,344	₦130m	₦130m
3.0	8,248	2,527	₦7.7bn	₦7.69bn
1.0	6,031	1,110	₦532m	₦524m
4.0	911	246	₦439m	₦439m
5.0	5	4	₦139m	₦139m