Ebonyi State

Rooftop solar in Afikpo North, Ebonyi: what the roofs are worth

Afikpo North has 45,802 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.02 GWp of roof capacity. 50% run a generator, and together they spend ₦60.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,802

Usable roof area

4.53 km²

1.02 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦60.2bn/yr

54.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Afikpo North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦60.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.02tn

NPV₦478bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy29 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity125 MWp

Capex₦128bn

Year-one energy value₦111bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.28tn

NPV₦888bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Afikpo North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 125 MWp
Capital cost: ₦128bn
Year 1 savings: ₦111bn/yr
NPV: ₦888bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Afikpo North pays back quickly

Of the 45,202 buildings in Afikpo North with a modelled payback, 70.7% pay back inside five years and 49.6% inside three.

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How much of Afikpo North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Afikpo North consume 72.3 GWh/yr but want 101 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Afikpo North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Afikpo North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,202 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,802 in Afikpo North. 37,964 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,425 (50%)

Under 5 years31,957 (71%)

Under 7 years37,913 (84%)

Under 10 years41,726 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,288 (90%)

Above 15%37,964 (83%)

Above 20%33,705 (74%)

Above 25%26,625 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

100 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

34.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

197k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Afikpo North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Afikpo North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	20,801	9,549	₦30.3bn	₦29.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	16,457	8,520	₦19.8bn	₦19.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
C	8,268	4,501	₦9.3bn	₦9.29bn	45%	2.4 yr
B	276	228	₦871m	₦866m	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	43,964	21,228	₦52.3bn	₦51.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	651	549	₦2.78bn	₦2.78bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	460	398	₦3.3bn	₦3.29bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	352	317	₦626m	₦625m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	235	185	₦1bn	₦993m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	110	95	₦29.9m	₦29.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	22	18	₦33m	₦33m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	8	8	₦174m	₦174m	59%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,825	7,854	₦20bn	₦19.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
50 100m2	11,607	4,918	₦3.37bn	₦3.15bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,758	3,614	₦527m	₦496m	17%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	6,578	2,801	₦863m	₦822m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,967	3,550	₦32bn	₦31.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	67	61	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	20,841	8,961	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	15,019	6,766	₦12.6bn	₦12.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	5,583	4,479	₦22.5bn	₦22.1bn	71%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	3,577	1,880	₦7.32bn	₦7.05bn	49%	2.1 yr
Rural	782	712	₦1.6bn	₦1.59bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	22,010	7,782	₦5.1bn	₦5.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	8,024	5,726	₦4.8bn	₦4.56bn	69%	1.6 yr
Residential	6,725	5,198	₦41.3bn	₦40.7bn	73%	1.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,252	985	₦815m	₦815m	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	2,751	1,424	₦179m	₦179m	47%	2.1 yr
Institutional	499	410	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	230	180	₦986m	₦978m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	200	197	₦764m	₦764m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	158	140	₦686m	₦686m	73%	1.4 yr
Agricultural	143	80	₦44.7m	₦44.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	127	116	₦104m	₦104m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	122	108	₦87.4m	₦87.4m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,761	22,776	₦60.1bn	₦59.2bn
Commercial	41	22	₦144m	₦144m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,868	21,983	₦54.8bn	₦53.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	695	583	₦4.3bn	₦4.28bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	239	232	₦1.14bn	₦1.13bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	17,496	6,611	₦7.29bn	₦7.29bn
3.0	12,679	7,571	₦46.6bn	₦46bn
2.0	10,577	5,749	₦5.33bn	₦5.08bn
0.0	2,836	1,484	₦215m	₦215m
1.0	2,174	1,344	₦416m	₦366m
5.0	38	37	₦373m	₦373m
6.0	2	2	₦17.1m	₦17.1m