Ebonyi State

Rooftop solar in Afikpo South, Ebonyi: what the roofs are worth

Afikpo South has 21,762 buildings with a viable rooftop and 428 MWp of roof capacity. 63% run a generator, and together they spend ₦51.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,762

Usable roof area

1.91 km²

428 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦51.2bn/yr

47.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.6 yr

Median IRR 69% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Afikpo South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦51.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦49.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.48tn

NPV₦402bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Unlocked energy24.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦99.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.7tn

NPV₦800bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Afikpo South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦99.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦800bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Afikpo South pays back quickly

Of the 21,688 buildings in Afikpo South with a modelled payback, 80.0% pay back inside five years and 62.8% inside three.

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How much of Afikpo South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Afikpo South consume 56.7 GWh/yr but want 80.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Afikpo South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Afikpo South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,688 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,762 in Afikpo South. 18,698 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,623 (63%)

Under 5 years17,352 (80%)

Under 7 years18,687 (86%)

Under 10 years19,870 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,582 (90%)

Above 15%18,698 (86%)

Above 20%17,799 (82%)

Above 25%15,147 (70%)

CO₂ avoided

82.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

208k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Afikpo South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Afikpo South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,086	5,902	₦20bn	₦19.4bn	69%	1.6 yr
D	8,997	5,906	₦25.2bn	₦24.6bn	71%	1.4 yr
C	3,679	1,815	₦6.07bn	₦5.32bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,980	12,860	₦45.9bn	₦44.3bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	296	289	₦2.3bn	₦2.29bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	257	251	₦2.31bn	₦2.04bn	79%	1.4 yr
Worship	144	140	₦302m	₦302m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	65	63	₦364m	₦363m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	17	17	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	61%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦6.26m	₦6.26m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,864	4,665	₦22.5bn	₦21.8bn	71%	1.4 yr
50 100m2	6,521	3,982	₦4.9bn	₦4.9bn	69%	1.6 yr
30 50m2	3,486	1,913	₦812m	₦808m	63%	1.6 yr
Under 30m2	3,266	1,778	₦357m	₦354m	55%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,619	1,280	₦22.4bn	₦21.3bn	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	5	₦184m	₦184m	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	12,069	8,192	₦33.2bn	₦32.1bn	71%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,573	3,426	₦7.78bn	₦7.57bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	3,538	1,704	₦9.32bn	₦8.76bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	582	301	₦929m	₦875m	61%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	9,765	6,229	₦7.42bn	₦7.42bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential	6,676	4,081	₦37.8bn	₦36.2bn	71%	1.4 yr
Shed	3,761	1,812	₦201m	₦201m	11%	8.9 yr
Residential Formal	751	716	₦462m	₦462m	53%	2.1 yr
Institutional	257	249	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	95	94	₦500m	₦500m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	65	63	₦364m	₦363m	71%	1.4 yr
School	59	58	₦250m	₦250m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	55	54	₦58.4m	₦58.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial	53	53	₦781m	₦775m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	43	₦1.08bn	₦813m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	37	36	₦22.7m	₦22.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,762	13,623	₦51.2bn	₦49.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,361	13,230	₦47.5bn	₦45.8bn	69%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	322	314	₦2.68bn	₦2.4bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	79	79	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	9,203	5,862	₦8.9bn	₦8.67bn
3.0	5,944	4,487	₦40.1bn	₦38.5bn
0.0	3,783	1,830	₦209m	₦209m
1.0	2,131	772	₦512m	₦508m
4.0	700	671	₦1.44bn	₦1.43bn
5.0	1	1	₦61.5m	₦61.5m