Nasarawa State

Rooftop solar in Toto, Nasarawa: what the roofs are worth

Toto has 46,742 buildings with a viable rooftop and 560 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,742

Usable roof area

2.51 km²

560 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.8bn/yr

15.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Toto

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦866bn

NPV₦136bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity65.5 MWp

Capex₦68.9bn

Year-one energy value₦66.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.14tn

NPV₦535bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Toto's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 65.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦68.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦535bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Toto pays back quickly

Of the 45,730 buildings in Toto with a modelled payback, 42.0% pay back inside five years and 16.3% inside three.

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How much of Toto's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Toto consume 23.2 GWh/yr but want 35.4 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Toto

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Toto actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,730 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,742 in Toto. 24,246 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,473 (16%)

Under 5 years19,219 (42%)

Under 7 years24,236 (53%)

Under 10 years29,098 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,571 (59%)

Above 15%24,246 (52%)

Above 20%20,643 (44%)

Above 25%16,341 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

29.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Toto.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Toto

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,600	5,080	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	11%	8.4 yr
D	18,061	2,417	₦3.61bn	₦3.56bn	19%	5.6 yr
C	81	6	₦18.3m	₦18.3m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,448	6,340	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	15%	6.6 yr
Worship	728	653	₦580m	₦580m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	339	302	₦2.37bn	₦2.3bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	207	190	₦673m	₦673m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	11	11	₦2.56m	₦2.56m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	7	₦10.8m	₦10.7m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	17,060	1,500	₦205m	₦205m	5%	16.4 yr
50 100m2	11,361	1,927	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	8,925	1,171	₦356m	₦356m	11%	9.4 yr
100 250m2	7,957	2,240	₦6.76bn	₦6.68bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,409	651	₦6.18bn	₦6.07bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	30	14	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	22,005	1,566	₦4.73bn	₦4.63bn	7%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	10,223	2,686	₦6.06bn	₦6.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	7,390	1,149	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	17%	5.9 yr
Urban	7,124	2,102	₦4.77bn	₦4.67bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,508	1,703	₦225m	₦225m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	13,081	2,136	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,683	1,781	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,176	720	₦424m	₦424m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	436	396	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	253	228	₦124m	₦124m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	230	204	₦66.7m	₦66.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	140	127	₦300m	₦300m	83%	1.4 yr
School	77	67	₦114m	₦114m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	65	57	₦921m	₦847m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	48	42	₦69.7m	₦69.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	16	16	₦132m	₦132m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,742	7,503	₦16.8bn	₦16.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,379	7,178	₦14.3bn	₦14.2bn	17%	6.4 yr
Enterprise	347	309	₦2.38bn	₦2.31bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	16	16	₦132m	₦132m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	21,556	1,748	₦229m	₦229m
2.0	10,737	2,589	₦5.82bn	₦5.77bn
1.0	7,660	1,296	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn
3.0	3,732	1,290	₦8.91bn	₦8.78bn
4.0	3,055	578	₦661m	₦661m
5.0	2	2	₦56.4m	₦56.4m