Nasarawa State

Rooftop solar in Doma, Nasarawa: what the roofs are worth

Doma has 99,744 buildings with a viable rooftop and 933 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

99,744

Usable roof area

4.19 km²

933 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.8bn/yr

9.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Doma

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦554bn

NPV₦80.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy12.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity75.7 MWp

Capex₦80bn

Year-one energy value₦73.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.44tn

NPV₦584bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Doma's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 75.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦584bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Doma pays back quickly

Of the 94,586 buildings in Doma with a modelled payback, 26.2% pay back inside five years and 6.9% inside three.

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How much of Doma's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Doma consume 20.5 GWh/yr but want 33.2 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Doma

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Doma actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,586 buildings with a modelled result out of 99,744 in Doma. 35,317 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,519 (7%)

Under 5 years24,773 (26%)

Under 7 years35,308 (37%)

Under 10 years47,744 (50%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,662 (45%)

Above 15%35,317 (35%)

Above 20%27,574 (28%)

Above 25%20,071 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

20.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Doma.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Doma

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	49,488	1,841	₦5.39bn	₦4.8bn	5%	15.6 yr
D	26,290	3,066	₦4.02bn	₦4bn	7%	13.4 yr
C	23,619	1,870	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	347	1	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	97,918	5,388	₦7.34bn	₦6.74bn	9%	12.9 yr
Commercial General	482	331	₦537m	₦537m	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	468	333	₦2.54bn	₦2.52bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	375	272	₦181m	₦181m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	303	278	₦35.5m	₦35.5m	51%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	87	79	₦42.7m	₦42.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	55	52	₦70.7m	₦70.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	29	18	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	53%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	27	27	₦24.9m	₦24.9m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,972	1,659	₦262m	₦261m	3%	18.4 yr
50 100m2	19,236	1,663	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	17,277	1,047	₦370m	₦368m	11%	9.4 yr
100 250m2	12,109	1,920	₦4.15bn	₦3.79bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,072	465	₦2.98bn	₦2.74bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	78	24	₦1.74bn	₦1.72bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	48,490	1,008	₦4.51bn	₦3.91bn	3%	18.1 yr
Urban Centre	25,293	2,704	₦1.89bn	₦1.88bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	23,222	2,164	₦3.24bn	₦3.24bn	11%	8.1 yr
Urban	2,739	902	₦1.15bn	₦1.14bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,070	1,178	₦216m	₦216m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	19,995	2,235	₦1.52bn	₦1.51bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	13,007	529	₦326m	₦326m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential	7,629	1,367	₦5.19bn	₦4.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,949	72	₦79.6m	₦79.6m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	372	342	₦65.8m	₦65.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	353	242	₦1.74bn	₦1.73bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	189	136	₦191m	₦191m	63%	1.6 yr
Apartment	145	2	₦5.03m	₦5.03m	27%	4.1 yr
Place Of Worship	140	108	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	136	88	₦198m	₦198m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	121	85	₦44.7m	₦44.7m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	99,598	6,777	₦10.7bn	₦10bn
Industrial	136	0	₦70.9m	₦70.9m
Farmland	10	1	₦57.7m	₦57.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	98,966	6,222	₦7.95bn	₦7.36bn	9%	9.9 yr
Enterprise	455	311	₦2.38bn	₦2.36bn	51%	2.1 yr
SME High	323	245	₦446m	₦446m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	53,456	1,190	₦215m	₦215m
2.0	20,567	1,995	₦2.29bn	₦2.09bn
3.0	14,724	2,531	₦7.38bn	₦6.97bn
1.0	7,468	883	₦402m	₦396m
4.0	3,508	179	₦483m	₦483m
5.0	20	0	₦8.01m	₦8.01m
6.0	1	0	₦1.83m	₦1.83m