Nasarawa State

Rooftop solar in Keffi, Nasarawa: what the roofs are worth

Keffi has 85,055 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.47 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦22.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

85,055

Usable roof area

6.56 km²

1.47 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦22.5bn/yr

19.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Keffi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦22.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.24tn

NPV₦180bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy25.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity103 MWp

Capex₦100bn

Year-one energy value₦70.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.32tn

NPV₦540bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Keffi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 103 MWp
Capital cost: ₦100bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦540bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Keffi pays back quickly

Of the 82,094 buildings in Keffi with a modelled payback, 52.6% pay back inside five years and 16.4% inside three.

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How much of Keffi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Keffi consume 50.1 GWh/yr but want 76 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Keffi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Keffi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 82,094 buildings with a modelled result out of 85,055 in Keffi. 60,626 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,451 (16%)

Under 5 years43,157 (53%)

Under 7 years60,651 (74%)

Under 10 years70,767 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,368 (82%)

Above 15%60,626 (71%)

Above 20%47,803 (56%)

Above 25%35,474 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

45.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.53 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

135k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Keffi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Keffi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	52,619	6,936	₦10.6bn	₦10.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	19,578	3,565	₦5.83bn	₦5.82bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	5,081	1,350	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	4,984	1,596	₦2.82bn	₦2.81bn	13%	7.6 yr
A	2,793	843	₦706m	₦696m	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	80,890	12,910	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	2,061	713	₦5.82bn	₦5.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,491	477	₦249m	₦249m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	407	126	₦5.83bn	₦5.65bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	136	39	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	31	23	₦91.4m	₦91.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	30	2	₦57.4m	₦57.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	0	₦1.61m	₦1.61m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦1.25m	₦1.25m	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦3.8m	₦3.8m	35%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	23,031	3,506	₦430m	₦418m	11%	7.6 yr
100 250m2	22,981	4,343	₦5.96bn	₦5.96bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	21,132	3,064	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	12,861	1,999	₦414m	₦413m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	4,804	1,272	₦7.98bn	₦7.92bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	246	106	₦6.42bn	₦6.27bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,982	7,104	₦10.1bn	₦10bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	16,170	4,530	₦6.94bn	₦6.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,588	989	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	6,089	931	₦3.74bn	₦3.72bn	15%	6.4 yr
Rural	1,226	736	₦347m	₦347m	79%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	33,390	1,829	₦987m	₦985m	19%	5.4 yr
Shed	15,438	3,052	₦351m	₦351m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Small	12,839	3,716	₦1.17bn	₦1.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	10,798	1,464	₦630m	₦630m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential	8,397	2,847	₦7.28bn	₦7.28bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,491	477	₦249m	₦249m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,103	217	₦3.54bn	₦3.53bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	597	406	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	262	96	₦5.13bn	₦4.99bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	160	31	₦222m	₦222m	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	133	35	₦119m	₦119m	45%	2.4 yr
School	124	32	₦111m	₦111m	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	84,981	14,282	₦22.1bn	₦21.9bn
Industrial	62	6	₦394m	₦394m
Farmland	12	2	₦24.7m	₦24.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,914	13,529	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	1,723	624	₦5.37bn	₦5.35bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	418	137	₦5.87bn	₦5.69bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	33,109	4,445	₦1.85bn	₦1.84bn
3.0	18,567	4,105	₦13.7bn	₦13.5bn
0.0	14,813	3,058	₦346m	₦346m
4.0	10,621	1,300	₦3.97bn	₦3.97bn
1.0	7,132	1,325	₦370m	₦370m
5.0	727	46	₦1.67bn	₦1.66bn
6.0	86	11	₦657m	₦652m