Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Nasarawa State: buildings, spend and payback

1,419,705 buildings in Nasarawa State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦270bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 13% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,419,705

Usable roof area

84.4 km²

18.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦270bn/yr

239 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nasarawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦270bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦264bn

Lifetime cash saved₦14.4tn

NPV₦2.13tn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy287 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.36 GWp

Capex₦1.39tn

Year-one energy value₦1.17tn

Lifetime energy value₦55.5tn

NPV₦9.29tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nasarawa State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.36 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.39tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.17tn/yr
NPV: ₦9.29tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nasarawa State pays back quickly

Of the 1,355,866 buildings in Nasarawa State with a modelled payback, 39.5% pay back inside five years and 13.1% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

39.5%

Payback under 3 years

13.1%

IRR above 20%

41.5%

Under 3 years · 13%3 – 5 years · 26%5 – 7 years · 15%7 – 10 years · 13%Over 10 years · 33%

Coverage: 96% of buildings in Nasarawa State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Nasarawa State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nasarawa State consume 523 GWh/yr but want 810 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

810 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

523 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

287 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Nasarawa State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,355,866 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,419,705 in Nasarawa State. 736,015 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years177,416 (13%)

Under 5 years535,748 (40%)

Under 7 years736,194 (54%)

Under 10 years909,274 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%871,805 (61%)

Above 15%736,015 (52%)

Above 20%588,892 (41%)

Above 25%449,040 (32%)

Electricity billing bands in Nasarawa State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nasarawa State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	484,456	50,495	₦89.5bn	₦86.7bn	9%	13.1 yr
D	317,882	43,033	₦70.1bn	₦68.6bn	15%	6.9 yr
B	302,206	44,826	₦42.8bn	₦42.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	239,852	44,936	₦63.7bn	₦62.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
A	75,309	4,850	₦4.27bn	₦4.26bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,372,731	163,005	₦158bn	₦155bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial General	19,279	8,536	₦40.5bn	₦40.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	12,321	4,957	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	7,501	6,023	₦4.81bn	₦4.81bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	6,392	4,522	₦63.5bn	₦60.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	507	477	₦334m	₦334m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	415	257	₦753m	₦750m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	413	268	₦1.1bn	₦929m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	111	88	₦120m	₦120m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	33	6	₦50.7m	₦50.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦344k	₦344k	31%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	510,550	40,787	₦5.12bn	₦4.98bn	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	333,817	46,893	₦27.7bn	₦27.5bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	289,691	56,965	₦87.5bn	₦85.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	232,671	27,866	₦6.83bn	₦6.73bn	11%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	51,008	14,725	₦82.5bn	₦81.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	1,968	904	₦60.7bn	₦57.9bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	451,746	62,484	₦60bn	₦59.1bn	19%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	447,575	26,802	₦67.6bn	₦64.5bn	5%	15.6 yr
Rural	203,317	27,021	₦38.9bn	₦38.2bn	15%	6.9 yr
Urban	188,347	48,721	₦69.6bn	₦68.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	126,486	22,955	₦33.4bn	₦33bn	21%	4.9 yr
(Unset)	2,234	157	₦827m	₦826m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	525,438	40,343	₦5.23bn	₦5.23bn	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	299,256	52,839	₦29.3bn	₦29bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	210,719	16,583	₦8.13bn	₦8.13bn	17%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	191,262	13,963	₦6bn	₦5.99bn	17%	5.6 yr
Residential	142,784	39,053	₦109bn	₦106bn	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	12,728	5,357	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	7,694	3,089	₦18.5bn	₦18.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,842	2,863	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	5,992	4,540	₦52.6bn	₦51.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	2,562	2,024	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	2,525	2,034	₦670m	₦670m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	2,060	1,496	₦4.07bn	₦4.07bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,418,583	187,831	₦270bn	₦264bn
Commercial	757	234	₦42m	₦42m
Industrial	313	65	₦473m	₦473m
Farmland	34	3	₦82.4m	₦82.4m
Farmyard	15	6	₦9.69m	₦9.69m
Orchard	3	1	₦9.79m	₦9.79m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,398,306	177,419	₦175bn	₦172bn	15%	6.4 yr
SME High	14,875	6,158	₦32.1bn	₦32bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	6,524	4,563	₦63.5bn	₦60.7bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	515,402	40,347	₦5.16bn	₦5.16bn
2.0	342,127	56,519	₦47.5bn	₦46.3bn
3.0	243,720	54,319	₦162bn	₦158bn
4.0	172,291	13,956	₦29.2bn	₦28.8bn
1.0	139,475	22,087	₦11.2bn	₦10.9bn
5.0	5,899	726	₦9.1bn	₦8.87bn
6.0	791	186	₦5.9bn	₦5.83bn