Nasarawa State

Rooftop solar in Kokona, Nasarawa: what the roofs are worth

Kokona has 77,941 buildings with a viable rooftop and 823 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

77,941

Usable roof area

3.7 km²

823 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.7bn/yr

15.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kokona

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦906bn

NPV₦135bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.4 MWp

Capex₦92.8bn

Year-one energy value₦79.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.75tn

NPV₦630bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kokona's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦79.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦630bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kokona pays back quickly

Of the 76,302 buildings in Kokona with a modelled payback, 36.1% pay back inside five years and 13.3% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Kokona's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kokona consume 34.6 GWh/yr but want 54.2 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Kokona

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kokona actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 76,302 buildings with a modelled result out of 77,941 in Kokona. 34,623 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,116 (13%)

Under 5 years27,558 (36%)

Under 7 years34,627 (45%)

Under 10 years43,297 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,723 (52%)

Above 15%34,623 (44%)

Above 20%29,671 (38%)

Above 25%24,138 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

33.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.71 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

170k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kokona.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kokona

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	40,966	3,513	₦3.9bn	₦3.87bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	21,232	2,326	₦4.17bn	₦4.11bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	11,684	3,478	₦7.17bn	₦7.11bn	27%	3.9 yr
B	4,059	825	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	73,655	7,716	₦7.8bn	₦7.76bn	9%	9.4 yr
Commercial General	2,003	1,042	₦5.21bn	₦5.15bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,465	681	₦165m	₦165m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	464	410	₦272m	₦272m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	300	257	₦3.16bn	₦3.09bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	48	34	₦72.6m	₦72.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	4	0	₦38.9m	₦38.9m	31%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	33,775	2,129	₦299m	₦299m	5%	17.4 yr
50 100m2	17,309	2,829	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	14,205	1,726	₦455m	₦455m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	10,848	2,716	₦4.59bn	₦4.56bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,682	689	₦6.09bn	₦6.06bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	122	53	₦3.39bn	₦3.29bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	44,955	3,430	₦5.61bn	₦5.51bn	7%	14.9 yr
Urban	12,888	3,030	₦6.72bn	₦6.66bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	12,004	1,203	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	13%	7.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,579	2,165	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban Centre	2,515	314	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	39,421	2,106	₦294m	₦294m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	22,433	3,380	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	8,491	1,835	₦5.43bn	₦5.4bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,290	324	₦89.1m	₦89.1m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,465	681	₦165m	₦165m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,116	561	₦3.67bn	₦3.61bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Informal	751	0	₦19.8m	₦19.8m	17%	5.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	659	307	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	356	307	₦2.73bn	₦2.67bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	188	37	₦9.05m	₦9.05m	25%	4.1 yr
Worship Center	161	144	₦70.8m	₦70.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	146	128	₦34.6m	₦34.6m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	77,889	10,142	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn
Industrial	52	0	₦339k	₦339k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	75,824	8,987	₦8.74bn	₦8.7bn	11%	9.1 yr
SME High	1,779	870	₦4.78bn	₦4.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	338	285	₦3.22bn	₦3.16bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	39,458	2,126	₦298m	₦298m
3.0	14,919	4,091	₦9.77bn	₦9.71bn
2.0	13,359	2,050	₦1.77bn	₦1.73bn
1.0	6,512	1,228	₦491m	₦491m
4.0	3,065	542	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn
5.0	508	48	₦864m	₦864m
6.0	120	57	₦2.43bn	₦2.37bn