Nasarawa State

Rooftop solar in Lafia, Nasarawa: what the roofs are worth

Lafia has 251,249 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.81 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

251,249

Usable roof area

17 km²

3.81 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.5bn/yr

49.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lafia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦57.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.18tn

NPV₦469bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy67.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity285 MWp

Capex₦284bn

Year-one energy value₦224bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.6tn

NPV₦1.75tn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Lafia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 285 MWp
Capital cost: ₦284bn
Year 1 savings: ₦224bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.75tn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lafia pays back quickly

Of the 242,607 buildings in Lafia with a modelled payback, 51.2% pay back inside five years and 19.5% inside three.

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How much of Lafia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lafia consume 121 GWh/yr but want 188 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lafia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lafia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 242,607 buildings with a modelled result out of 251,249 in Lafia. 165,317 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years47,349 (20%)

Under 5 years124,110 (51%)

Under 7 years165,376 (68%)

Under 10 years195,424 (81%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%189,339 (75%)

Above 15%165,317 (66%)

Above 20%135,978 (54%)

Above 25%104,391 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

117 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

67.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

451k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lafia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lafia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	65,811	18,911	₦17.3bn	₦17.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
C	65,601	9,747	₦13.2bn	₦13bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	64,624	11,368	₦13.8bn	₦13.8bn	15%	6.9 yr
D	52,129	11,097	₦13.7bn	₦13.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	3,084	221	₦374m	₦374m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	238,718	45,809	₦32.4bn	₦32.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	5,625	1,958	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,498	1,008	₦351m	₦351m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	1,771	1,402	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	61%	1.9 yr
Anchor	1,218	833	₦12.3bn	₦11.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	188	180	₦152m	₦152m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	120	78	₦315m	₦312m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	66	42	₦242m	₦242m	45%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	36	33	₦35.3m	₦35.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	8	0	₦1.4m	₦1.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦225k	₦225k	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	69,627	13,438	₦6.4bn	₦6.29bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	68,377	11,146	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	7%	13.6 yr
100 250m2	58,220	15,497	₦19.8bn	₦19.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	43,834	7,513	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	15%	7.1 yr
250 1000m2	10,703	3,540	₦16.8bn	₦16.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	488	210	₦12.8bn	₦12.3bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	98,539	22,364	₦19.9bn	₦19.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	51,421	4,866	₦10.8bn	₦10.4bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban	43,600	13,630	₦15.8bn	₦15.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	32,563	6,882	₦7.71bn	₦7.71bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	25,125	3,602	₦4.23bn	₦4.21bn	21%	4.9 yr
(Unset)	1	0	₦19.3k	₦19.3k	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	67,446	10,148	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	57,112	13,190	₦6.27bn	₦6.17bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	55,149	9,654	₦3.51bn	₦3.51bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	34,105	4,754	₦1.76bn	₦1.75bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	24,839	8,050	₦19.7bn	₦19.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,655	1,163	₦452m	₦452m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	3,533	989	₦7.69bn	₦7.65bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	1,214	896	₦10.4bn	₦9.98bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,198	478	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	651	519	₦207m	₦207m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	577	448	₦215m	₦215m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	393	272	₦772m	₦772m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	251,230	51,338	₦58.4bn	₦57.5bn
Farmyard	15	6	₦9.69m	₦9.69m
Farmland	4	0	₦33.2k	₦33.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	245,195	48,989	₦36.7bn	₦36.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	4,822	1,522	₦9.56bn	₦9.51bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,232	833	₦12.2bn	₦11.7bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	81,758	17,644	₦10.6bn	₦10.4bn
0.0	64,786	9,915	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn
3.0	43,589	12,487	₦30.2bn	₦29.7bn
1.0	29,726	6,329	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn
4.0	28,195	4,526	₦9.41bn	₦9.36bn
5.0	2,829	363	₦3.24bn	₦3.19bn
6.0	366	80	₦1.65bn	₦1.65bn