Lagos State
Solar in Lagos Island: sunlight, tariffs and what a system costs
A rooftop in Lagos Island gets about 4.5 peak sun hours a day, so every kilowatt of panels makes roughly 1,353 kWh a year. A 5 kW home system produces about 19 kWh on an average day, against roughly 18 kWh of daily demand.
Every figure below is recalculated for the audience you pick.
Peak sun hours
4.5 h/day
Daily average across the year
Yield per kW
1,353 kWh/yr
Delivered output, after 17% system losses
5 kW system output
19 kWh/day
6,768 kWh a year
Grid tariff (modelled)
₦209.50/kWh
EKEDC Band A, cost-reflective
What power actually looks like in Lagos Island
85% of Lagos Island runs a generator, the grid arrives for about 19.2 hours a day, and roughly 56% of what people would use they simply go without. 37% of the electricity actually consumed here is made by a generator rather than delivered by Eko Electricity Distribution Company.
Grid hours a day
19.2 h
Band-implied supply, 14.4–19.2 h across buildings here
Energy from generators
37%
Share of units actually consumed
Buildings with a generator
85%
10,198 of 12,001 buildings
Demand going unmet
56%
Energy people want but do not get
Spent on power a year
₦9.0m
₦752,073 a month, typical building
Of that, generator fuel
₦3.4m
Bought in small amounts all year
Hours are the nameplate supply the feeder's band implies. What actually arrives is lower, which is why the generator share above is the figure that bites.
Lagos Island electricity usage — home
A home of this size in Lagos Island works through about 18 kWh a day, roughly 6,570 kWh a year, and gets around 19 hours of grid supply a day from Eko Electricity Distribution Company. Demand is light through the working day and peaks between 6pm and 10pm, when solar has already stopped. Cooling load rises through the hot dry months, exactly when generation is strongest.
Weighted average tariff (EKEDC)
₦169.25/kWh
Weighted across the Band A/B mix in Lagos Island — about 19 hours a day on paper; actual supply hours are often lower
Generator units
₦594/kWh
Diesel at ₦1,800 a litre, fuel only
Solar units (5 kW / 10 kWh)
₦174.87/kWh
Levelised cost of a 5 kW solar and 10 kWh battery system over 25 years
Your electricity bill in Lagos Island: EKEDC
Lagos Island is served by Eko Electricity Distribution Company. Your band depends on how many hours of supply your feeder is promised, and it is printed on your bill. Most buildings here — about 73% — are billed on Band A.
Buildings by band in Lagos Island
| Band | Supply promised | ₦/kWh | Buildings here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band A | 20+ hours a day | ₦209.50 | 73% | Cost-reflective, no subsidy |
| Band B | 16–20 hours a day | ₦61.00 | 27% | Subsidised |
| Band C | 12–16 hours a day | ₦48.53 | — | Subsidised |
| Band D | 8–12 hours a day | ₦32.48 | — | Subsidised |
| Band E | 4–8 hours a day | ₦32.44 | — | Subsidised |
Every calculation on this page is run against the Band A, cost-reflective rate of ₦209.50/kWh. Bands B–E are subsidised and under review, so pricing solar against them would flatter the subsidy rather than the system.
For comparison, a small petrol or diesel generator delivers a unit for roughly ₦594/kWh once fuel is counted — several times a subsidised band, and the reason solar pays back fastest where the grid is weakest.
What a 5 kW array makes each month in Lagos Island
6,768 kWh a year, about 19 kWh on an average day. Strongest in Aug, quietest in Dec.
Three prices for the same kilowatt-hour
Most buildings in Lagos Island already buy the most expensive of these. A diesel unit costs about ₦594 and a small petrol set about ₦669 once fuel is counted, against ₦209.50 on EKEDC Band A.
Grid (EKEDC Band A)
₦209.50/kWh
When supply is on
Diesel generator
₦594/kWh
Diesel at ₦1,800 a litre, fuel only
Petrol generator
₦669/kWh
Small household set, modelled locally
Licensed minigrid
₦400–600/kWh
What Nigerians already pay a licensed operator
Your own roof
₦174.87/kWh
5 kW / 10 kWh over its life
The roof unit is fixed the day you buy it. The other three move with tariff reviews and the fuel price.
What your roof in Lagos Island can take
A 5 kW array needs roughly 28 m² of clear roof once walkways and setbacks are allowed for. The typical usable roof here is about 79 m², enough for about 14.0 kW of panels, and sized against real demand the modelled fit for a home in Lagos Island is around 22.4 kW with storage for the evening — not the biggest array the roof allows.
Smaller roof (p25)
34 m²
About 6.1 kW of panels
Typical roof (median)
79 m²
About 14.0 kW of panels
Large roof (p90)
281 m²
About 49.6 kW of panels
Roofs over 30 m²
86%
Enough for a starter array or better
Flat roofs
36%
Tilt frames needed; the rest mount flush
Typical array bought
22.4 kW
Modelled across every viable roof here
Typical installed cost
₦20.8m
Hardware and installation
Typical daily demand
85.0 kWh
Modelled, per building
Quoted on this page
5 kW / 10 kWh
₦4.2m
- Half the roofs in Lagos Island take at least a 14.0 kW array; the biggest quarter take 27.8 kW or more.
Roof size caps the array, not the battery. A small roof with a bigger battery still covers the evening.
Where the power comes from in Lagos Island
Home · 5 kW + 10 kWh — 5 kW of panels with a 10 kWh battery, simulated hour by hour for a full year against a measured residential house demand pattern. Solar and storage carry 81% of the load.
Each band is an average hour across the year: sunlight first, then the battery after dark, with the grid filling whatever is left.
What this system returns in Lagos Island
A four-bedroom home running fans, fridge, TV, pumps and light air conditioning. 5 kW solar, 10 kWh battery, 4.8 kW inverter — installed at about ₦4.2m. Solar costs ₦175 a unit over its life, and 81% of demand is met without the grid.
Year-one savings
₦1.1m
₦93,250 a month off the bill
Payback
4.0 yrs
Simple payback on installed cost
Return (IRR)
22%
Over a 20-year life
20-year savings
₦16.4m
Net present value ₦2.4m
What it returns here
No two buildings in Lagos Island save the same amount. Across every viable roof modelled here, the middle half lands between 2.1 and 3.9 years to pay back, with returns of 29%–51% a year. If you already run a generator, solar starts by replacing the most expensive units you buy, so it pays back fastest; a grid-only building displaces cheaper units and takes longer.
Payback
2.1–3.9 yrs
Median 2.6 years
Return a year
29%–51%
Median 41% IRR
With a generator today
2.6 yrs
Fuel displaced first, then grid units
Grid-only building
2.6 yrs
Nothing to displace but tariff units
This page's system
4.0 yrs
From the simulated run above
Year-one saving
₦5.4m–₦9.8m
Implied by the payback spread on a typical system
Pay back inside 5 years
89%
64% inside three years
Energy independence
62%
Share of the year covered by solar and storage
Demand unlocked
16.3 kWh/day
5,949 kWh a year, per building
What that runs
362 fan-hours
Or a fridge running unbroken, plus lights all evening
Modelled solar unit
₦121/kWh
Across every viable roof here
- Beyond the money, the change people notice is that the things they switch off stay on — about 16.3 kWh a day of currently suppressed demand comes back.
Modelled at today's fuel and tariff, against what each building spends on power now. Both have moved upward, which shortens payback.
Environmental benefit in Lagos Island
Diesel avoided
419 L/yr
About ₦753,720 of fuel
CO₂ avoided
3,533 kg/yr
Grid factor 0.5 kg per kWh
Generator hours cut
167 hrs/yr
At a typical 2.5 L an hour
Clean energy
6,091 kWh/yr
Used on site, not exported
What it costs and how you pay
A five-year facility on this system costs about ₦122,535 a month, against ₦93,250 a month of savings — a gap of ₦29,285 a month to top up until the fuel bill falls away.
Pay outright
₦4.2m
Lowest lifetime cost, fastest return
5-year facility
₦122,535/mo
Indicative at 25% a year
Monthly saving
₦93,250
Year one, fuel and tariff combined
Monthly top-up
₦29,285/mo
What you add until the fuel bill falls away
Spent on power today
₦752,073/mo
Typical building in this area
What this area buys
Full home system
Affordability index 4.06 against the national average
Lease and pay-as-you-go structures exist for businesses with a steady load — those are priced per site, not per package.
What a system costs in Lagos Island
Installed price estimates using today's median Nigerian hardware rates plus installation, and savings valued at your local tariff and what a generator costs to run. Estimates, not quotes.
Essentials
Lights, fans, TV, phones and a small fridge
₦2.9m
3 kW solar · 5 kWh battery · 3.5 kVA inverter
- Generates
- 338 kWh/month
- Avoided spend
- ₦83,294/month
- Pays back in
- 2.9 years
- Fuel avoided
- 237 L/yr
Family home
Full home minus air conditioning, with overnight backup
₦5.1m
5 kW solar · 10 kWh battery · 5 kVA inverter
- Generates
- 564 kWh/month
- Avoided spend
- ₦146,990/month
- Pays back in
- 2.9 years
- Fuel avoided
- 419 L/yr
Whole home
Air conditioning, boreholes and a home office
₦10.2m
10 kW solar · 20 kWh battery · 10 kVA inverter
- Generates
- 1,128 kWh/month
- Avoided spend
- ₦300,513/month
- Pays back in
- 2.8 years
- Fuel avoided
- 856 L/yr
What hardware costs right now
Median advertised Nigerian prices, taken from live listings. Hardware only — installation, mounting and wiring sit on top.
Solar panels
₦225/W
350 W panels and larger
Inverters
₦123,266/kVA
2.5 kVA inverters and larger
Batteries
₦203,676/kWh
3 kWh batteries and larger
Where solar does not work in Lagos Island
Not every building here is a candidate, and it is cheaper to know that now.
- 14% of roofs are under 30 m² — enough for lights, fans and phones, not for air conditioning or a freezer room.
- Rented property where the landlord will not approve roof work, and shared blocks with no clear roof allocation.
- Buildings whose demand is mostly daytime heavy machinery — those need a commercial design, not a home package.
- Buildings on a well-supplied band with low consumption — about 100% of Lagos Island sits on Band A or B, and with a small bill there is little expensive energy for solar to displace.
What Lagos Island is built of
Of the buildings mapped here, 75% read as homes, 25% as shops, offices and other commercial premises, and 0% as industrial. That mix is why the packages above lean the way they do.
How your roof changes the answer
The figures above assume a clean, well-oriented roof. Yield per kWp installed, adjusted for direction and shade:
| South facing, 10–15° tilt | 1,353 kWh/kWp/yr | 0% |
| Flat roof, ballasted | 1,299 kWh/kWp/yr | -4% |
| East or west facing | 1,191 kWh/kWp/yr | -12% |
| North facing | 1,110 kWh/kWp/yr | -18% |
| Partially shaded (trees, tanks) | 1,015 kWh/kWp/yr | -25% |
Nearby areas in Lagos
Sizing the market rather than a single site? See the rooftop market data for Lagos State.
How these numbers are produced
Approach A — energy value (upper bracket)
Sizes the system to the building's full latent demand and values that energy at the mixed grid/generator tariff. It answers what the energy is worth — not what anyone currently pays.
Approach B — cash saved (lower bracket)
Sizes the system to demand that is actually served today, values it by merit order (solar displaces generator kWh first) and caps it at current spend. It answers what a building stops paying.
Cohort: Viable rooftops (≥0.6 kWp potential).
- Demand is modelled latent demand, not metered consumption.
- Fuel is priced at ₦1,800/litre (operator-set). NBS reported ₦3,277/litre for May 2026 — on that basis every naira figure here is roughly 1.8× understated.
- Generator ownership is a model output, not a survey result: it follows from the grid-availability scale and the 25% demand-suppression assumption.
- Approach A prices energy nobody currently buys. Its savings must never be read as cash saved.
- Demand is MODELLED LATENT demand, not metered consumption.
- Generator ownership is model output, not survey.
- Medians do not combine across groups — re-derive from the histograms.
- Per-building files are float32 with 4 significant figures; cast to float64 before summing, because polars keeps Float32 sums in Float32.
- Null scenario fields mean the roof cannot host 0.6 kWp, not zero savings.
- `genset` was previously named `diesel` and now uses the segment's real fuel.
- Ordering holds by construction: grid savings < mixed < genset.