Enugu State

Rooftop solar in Oji-River, Enugu: what the roofs are worth

Oji-River has 54,898 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.08 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,898

Usable roof area

4.82 km²

1.08 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.7bn/yr

17.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oji-River

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦968bn

NPV₦148bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy19.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦103bn

Year-one energy value₦88.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.22tn

NPV₦707bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oji-River's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦103bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦707bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oji-River pays back quickly

Of the 54,324 buildings in Oji-River with a modelled payback, 54.1% pay back inside five years and 22.9% inside three.

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How much of Oji-River's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oji-River consume 30.2 GWh/yr but want 49.2 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oji-River

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oji-River actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 54,324 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,898 in Oji-River. 39,869 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,464 (23%)

Under 5 years29,384 (54%)

Under 7 years39,761 (73%)

Under 10 years45,605 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,715 (81%)

Above 15%39,869 (73%)

Above 20%31,920 (58%)

Above 25%18,674 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

35.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.96 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

240k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oji-River.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oji-River

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	16,427	3,318	₦4.79bn	₦4.79bn	23%	4.9 yr
D	13,474	3,716	₦5.4bn	₦5.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	13,472	3,318	₦5.64bn	₦5.31bn	23%	4.9 yr
B	11,513	2,231	₦2.82bn	₦2.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	12	0	₦1.18m	₦1.18m	11%	8.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	52,208	10,756	₦12.2bn	₦12.2bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	1,218	820	₦2.82bn	₦2.82bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	644	292	₦76.6m	₦76.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	509	438	₦2.91bn	₦2.63bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	149	126	₦446m	₦446m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	145	132	₦141m	₦141m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	22	17	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	3	2	₦6.14m	₦6.14m	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,998	4,048	₦6.6bn	₦6.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	13,985	2,827	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	21%	5.4 yr
Under 30m2	11,481	2,517	₦253m	₦253m	7%	13.6 yr
30 50m2	7,907	1,667	₦323m	₦323m	13%	7.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,481	1,495	₦8.27bn	₦8.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	46	29	₦1.94bn	₦1.67bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	25,114	4,441	₦4.67bn	₦4.67bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	25,014	7,020	₦11.7bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,010	945	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	760	177	₦247m	₦247m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	21,154	4,371	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	18,223	4,184	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,814	2,200	₦206m	₦206m	9%	13.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	644	292	₦76.6m	₦76.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	448	340	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	409	358	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	378	158	₦503m	₦503m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	167	146	₦455m	₦455m	75%	1.4 yr
School	116	100	₦135m	₦135m	75%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	99	85	₦1.1bn	₦829m	47%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	93	78	₦347m	₦347m	65%	1.6 yr
Clinic	70	62	₦218m	₦218m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,271	12,108	₦18.4bn	₦18bn
Commercial	627	475	₦298m	₦298m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	53,400	11,510	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn	23%	4.9 yr
SME High	850	516	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	648	557	₦3.33bn	₦3.05bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	18,143	4,086	₦2.85bn	₦2.85bn
3.0	17,707	4,588	₦13.9bn	₦13.6bn
0.0	12,830	2,204	₦206m	₦206m
1.0	5,974	1,528	₦355m	₦355m
4.0	229	166	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn
5.0	15	11	₦188m	₦188m